Wednesday, July 16, 2008

First half thoughts

It's kind of funny when thinking about how the first half of the season has gone for the Dodgers. On one hand, if I was told prior to the season that they'd only be 1 game in back of 1st place, I would have gladly taken it and moved on. But, when you think about the fact that they're only 46-49, it's kind of embarrassing that the NL West has deteriorated so quickly.

But I'm not here to focus on the rest of the division, this is all about the Dodgers. Here are some separate headlines that have occurred, followed by my thoughts.

Joe Torre begins his first year as manager on the West Coast
I was one of those believers that his mere presence would cause a turn for the better. Well, I'm not sure I was as sold on it as some other people, but I definitely looked at it as a change for the better. And, good record or not, it's still a change for the better.

But I think it's time we stop assuming that a manager can dramatically change a team. Yes, a difference can be made, but it's not like they can hit, field, and run. That's all up to the players. I'm sure Torre isn't telling Matt Kemp to screw up on the bases and Juan Pierre to take 1 walk a month. It's quite the opposite I'm sure, but it doesn't matter. The players determine the outcome.

The hope is that Torre's approach will pay off in the long run, and in that respect, we still have to give it time to unfold. The Dodgers did win 4 of the last 5 series, so that's a great sign. No matter how poorly the rest of the division is playing, they just have to worry about being on top when it's all said and done. Time will tell.

Rafael Furcal's hot start... and abrupt shutdown
Boy, do I miss Raffy. And by "I," I should say "any fan of the Dodgers." He was MVP material to start the season, and they have been lost for the most part without him. Here's his numbers thus far - 32 G, .366 AVG, .448 OBP, 12 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 19 BB, 8 SB. He was clearly the best player on the team through the month of April.

Then he went down with a bad back after the May 5 game against the New York Mets, and hasn't been heard from since. It's a huge shame because he's had a bad history of injuries. In his contract year, this could not have come at a worse time.

So now 3 big questions remain. 1) Will he come back this season? 2) Will he be the same player if he does? 3) Do the Dodgers resign him despite other bad contracts of injured players?

No run support
This is really a follow-up of the Furcal posting. He goes down, and the offense goes on life support. But even without him, their offense is so horrendous some nights, it's almost impossible to watch.

Here's how their doing in the major hitting categories (NL only - 16 teams):
AVG - 12th
OBP - 11th
R - 13th
HR - 15th
RBI - 13th
SB - 2nd

Yeah, not exactly Earth shattering numbers. At least they can run well. But the rest of the numbers are simply ugly. Yes, I fully understand not having Furcal in there makes a big difference, and that's completely true. But, it's not like the rest of the team needs to go into hibernation waiting for him to come back. They need to step up.

Great pitching
As poorly as the offense has performed, the pitching has really gained momentum lately. Even though Jason Schmidt hasn't made an appearance, Scott Proctor has been horrendous, and Brad Penny has been awful and hurt, the rest of the staff has picked it up.

Here's the rankings in the major pitching categories (NL only again)
ERA - 1st
WHIP - 2nd
BB - 3rd
K - 5th
SV - 13th

That's more like it. Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda started off the year as the #3 and #4 starters, but they have been more like #1 and #2. Derek Lowe was abysmal through May, but has been Good Lowe since then. Jonathan Broxton and Takashi Saito may be a notch below their normal dominant selves, but they still have been great. Overall, they've been fun to watch.

Juan Pierre's shaky play
The season did not start off well for Pierre, as he was relegated to the bench in favor of Andre Ethier in left. Injuries and some horrible play (just wait for that) have bumped him up to a starter. While April did not do much for him, he was at a .286 AVG and .350 OBP in May. Then he went down with a sprained left knee ligament June 29, and was on the DL for the first time in his career.

Look, I'll never fault his effort. I continually hear about his preparation and effort each day at the ballpark. But I can fault the results. He's simply not a leadoff hitter, as in 207 AB's, he has a lowly .294 OBP. Yikes. And we all know about his spaghetti arm. It's just not working out for him as a Dodger, but I think we'll be stuck watching him for the foreseeable future.

I've saved the best one for last...

ANDRUW JONES IS THE WORST PLAYER IN THE MAJORS
I'm going to try as hard as I can to put my thoughts about Jones into words, but it won't be easy. So please, bare with me.

I remember my very first blog post on here was about Jones signing with LA, and boy was I excited. I immediately thought about the Dodgers getting more power and runs, along with great defense. My oh my, I could not have been any more wrong.

To say he has been a letdown would be like saying Brett Favre is being a drama queen. To try and put in perspective just how pathetic he has been, here are his numbers:

.164 AVG, .265 OBP, 19 R, 6 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 23 BB, 59 K, 0 SB

Wow, they were even worse than I thought. Want to know how many multiple hit games he has? 3. Want to know what his average is with runners in scoring position? .067. How about when there's 2 outs? .050. Absolutely pitiful.

The trouble started way back in Spring Training when he reported way overweight. No big deal, he said, he'll work his way out of it. Ya, ok. Still waiting for that to happen. Not that it will.

He was supposed to turn the franchise around, and guess what? He has. Only for the worse. Now they have another player making a ridiculous amount of money and not giving a damn thing back. This signing alone could spell the end of GM Ned Colletti's tenure with the Dodgers. Wouldn't surprise me one bit.

Overall thoughts
They still have a long way to go if they want to be considered a legit contender. At this point, they may sneak in the playoffs, but it's hard to believe they could hang with teams like the Cubs, Phillies, or Cardinals. Heck, even the Mets and Marlins are up there.

They have the pitching. Kuroda, Billingsley, and Lowe should continue to be great. Chan Ho Park and Hong-Chih Kuo have been huge. Takashi Saito is done for awhile, and that will hurt, but I think Jonathan Broxton will be ok. With Brad Penny due back at some point, hopefully he'll have things figured out. Plus there's that Clayton Kershaw guy, who could reemerge at some point. Depth is their strength.

At the end of the day, the offense will determine if this is a season to remember. The youngsters need to produce. I'm looking specifically at Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Andre Ethier. I won't count Russell Martin since he's already an established All-Star. If those 3 can improve their game, then they can get big wins. They simply cannot have games where the offense can barely get 1 run. Consistency is the key, and they need much more of it.

With the possibilities of trades always lingering in the air, the 2nd half will be a fun one to watch.

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