If the past week is any indication, then the answer is an emphatic "YES."
After Brett Anderson dazzled with 10 strikeouts in seven innings of one-run ball, Adam Liberatore and the returning Pedro Baez each struck out the side in the last two innings, and the Dodgers cruised to a 7-1 win in Miami. It helped that the Marlins looked completely incompetent at times, and that their big superstar Giancarlo Stanton broke a bone in his left hand during the game. But the Dodgers looked really good nonetheless.
We all know the book on beating the Dodgers: get their starter out of there early enough to attack their middle relief. If you can't do that, then forget about it, because Kenley Jansen is as good as it gets at the end of the game. For much of the season, the Dodgers looked helpless at times in getting the ball to Jansen.
Maybe that's finally turning around, as over the last seven days, the bullpen has been nearly flawless. Yimi Garcia, J.P. Howell, Matt West, Juan Nicasio, and Jansen have all pitched at least a couple of innings without being scored on. Baez made his return on Friday and was perfect, blowing away the three Marlins he faced.
Liberatore has bounced back from a rough start in June to lower his ERA to 2.82. Joel Peralta is also back, and has two straight scoreless appearances.
Add it all up, and for the first time in quite awhile, the Dodgers have to be feeling good about their options in innings 6-8. There's been so many moving parts this year that it's hard to pinpoint the exact roles for each, but here's what I would do if I'm Don Mattingly:
6th - 8th Innings: Garcia, Howell, Nicasio
8th Inning: Liberatore, Peralta, Baez
9th Inning: Jansen (duh)
I'll leave Liberatore in the late-inning role right now only for matchups. Peralta was brought in to be that setup guy, but as long as Baez throws that hard and effectively as he showed Friday night, he deserves some chances as well.
Nicasio was never meant to be playing such a big role, but much to his credit, he's been fantastic with a 1.78 ERA. I think he'd be good as a bridge in the earlier innings to the setup and closer. That can easily change if the other guys flop.
The bullpen has been maligned at various points this year, but if you're looking at the bottom line, it's that they're third in the NL in ERA (2.96) and K's (236), and second in BAA (.219). That's pretty darn good.
With healthier arms now, those numbers could get even better soon.
Showing posts with label Jansen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jansen. Show all posts
Saturday, June 27, 2015
Sunday, June 7, 2015
Kershaw, Puig, Jansen, all getting back on track
The stars aligned Saturday night in Dodger Stadium, and not a moment too soon.
With the Dodgers struggling to beat the NL's elite this season, it was time for the best players on the team to step up and lead the way. Clayton Kershaw, Yasiel Puig, and Kenley Jansen did just that. Kershaw pitched eight brilliant innings, Puig broke open a scoreless tie with an RBI double, and Jansen slammed the door shut in the Dodgers' 2-0 win over the Cardinals.
Let's take a look at all three of their performances:
* Kershaw (8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K). If you were looking for a "vintage Kershaw" start, then you got just that. With a sharp breaking ball and perfectly located fastball, the Cardinals were left off-balance all night. He's now won his last three starts, lowering his ERA nearly a full run to 3.36.
The key has been that he hasn't beaten himself. Earlier in the year, he could barely throw a fastball without it sailing over the fat part of the plate. Last night he was spotting it perfectly, mostly on the outside corner vs. right-handed hitters. He was just what the team needed on a night where the offense was mostly MIA... again.
* Puig (1-for-3, RBI double, run, 2 K's). The first couple of at-bats were ugly, as he struck out on barely any pitches. That all changed in the eighth. After Chris Heisey shockingly (and I do mean SHOCKINGLY) led off with a double, Puig hit a laser into right center for an RBI double, and the 1-0 lead. He soon scored on a single from Justin Turner for the game's only runs.
When Don Mattingly released his lineup for the night, it basically consisted of Joc Pederson, Puig, and a bunch of other names that did not include Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Guerrero, Andre Ethier, or Yasmani Grandal. It was definitely a head scratcher. Well, the offense only managed two runs on seven hits, but at least it was Puig showing his value already with the big blow. Who knows where he'll end up hitting with the way Donnie switches the batting order, but #3 looks good for now.
* Jansen (1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K). After going through a bit of controversy when he was unavailable during the collapse in Colorado on Wednesday, Jansen was at his best in the ninth for his sixth save in as many chances. He got two straight pop-ups to start the inning, then struck out Matt Holliday looking to end it. He hasn't given up a run yet this year. I'm pretty sure that means his ERA is 0.00. Yup, it does.
While Jansen is not a worry, the biggest issue for the Dodgers will be bridging the gap to him. Last night, it was Kershaw doing it himself, as he got through eight innings with a pitch count over 100. Do we start to see Jansen extending himself for more four-out, possibly even five-out saves? I wouldn't be against it as long as he's on the proper rest. Beats the heck out of watching some of these other clowns blow the lead.
With the Dodgers struggling to beat the NL's elite this season, it was time for the best players on the team to step up and lead the way. Clayton Kershaw, Yasiel Puig, and Kenley Jansen did just that. Kershaw pitched eight brilliant innings, Puig broke open a scoreless tie with an RBI double, and Jansen slammed the door shut in the Dodgers' 2-0 win over the Cardinals.
Let's take a look at all three of their performances:
* Kershaw (8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K). If you were looking for a "vintage Kershaw" start, then you got just that. With a sharp breaking ball and perfectly located fastball, the Cardinals were left off-balance all night. He's now won his last three starts, lowering his ERA nearly a full run to 3.36.
The key has been that he hasn't beaten himself. Earlier in the year, he could barely throw a fastball without it sailing over the fat part of the plate. Last night he was spotting it perfectly, mostly on the outside corner vs. right-handed hitters. He was just what the team needed on a night where the offense was mostly MIA... again.
* Puig (1-for-3, RBI double, run, 2 K's). The first couple of at-bats were ugly, as he struck out on barely any pitches. That all changed in the eighth. After Chris Heisey shockingly (and I do mean SHOCKINGLY) led off with a double, Puig hit a laser into right center for an RBI double, and the 1-0 lead. He soon scored on a single from Justin Turner for the game's only runs.
When Don Mattingly released his lineup for the night, it basically consisted of Joc Pederson, Puig, and a bunch of other names that did not include Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Guerrero, Andre Ethier, or Yasmani Grandal. It was definitely a head scratcher. Well, the offense only managed two runs on seven hits, but at least it was Puig showing his value already with the big blow. Who knows where he'll end up hitting with the way Donnie switches the batting order, but #3 looks good for now.
* Jansen (1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K). After going through a bit of controversy when he was unavailable during the collapse in Colorado on Wednesday, Jansen was at his best in the ninth for his sixth save in as many chances. He got two straight pop-ups to start the inning, then struck out Matt Holliday looking to end it. He hasn't given up a run yet this year. I'm pretty sure that means his ERA is 0.00. Yup, it does.
While Jansen is not a worry, the biggest issue for the Dodgers will be bridging the gap to him. Last night, it was Kershaw doing it himself, as he got through eight innings with a pitch count over 100. Do we start to see Jansen extending himself for more four-out, possibly even five-out saves? I wouldn't be against it as long as he's on the proper rest. Beats the heck out of watching some of these other clowns blow the lead.
Thursday, June 4, 2015
Let's hope Kenley is OK. As for the rest of the bullpen...
Boy, do they flat out stink lately.
And that's being nice.
The latest example of a reliever melting down is Adam Liberatore. Actually, it's Yimi Garcia. No wait, it's J.P. Howell. On second thought, it's Chris Hatcher.
What do they all have in common? They all had a hand in blowing a 6-4, ninth inning lead to the Rockies on Wednesday, which soon lead to a painful 7-6 defeat in Colorado.
Painful, embarrassing... call it what you want. I'll call it pathetic, too.
One night after a thrilling comeback victory, highlighted by Alex Guerrero's go-ahead grand slam in the ninth, the Dodgers took one step back thanks to their shaky 'pen. Liberatore was perfect in the eighth, so with Kenley Jansen mysteriously unavailable, he started the ninth. A single and a ground rule double later, he was out of there.
Garcia wasn't any better, issuing two straight walks, one of which brought in a run to make it 6-5. Out he went, and in came Howell, who threw a low pitch that wasn't handled well by Yasmani Grandal for the passed ball, tying the game.
After an intentional walk to load the bases again, Hatcher gave up the walk-off sacrifice fly to Nolan Arenado, and that was that.
Simply put, the Dodgers just don't have a whole lot of options to rely on late in the game, save for Jansen of course. Liberatore has given up runs in two straight games. Garcia has fallen apart, allowing multiple baserunners in three straight appearances. If Hatcher even records an out it's considered an accomplishment.
Paco Rodriguez, Pedro Baez, and Joel Peralta are all hurt. About the only worthwhile guys are Howell and Juan Nicasio. Josh Ravin has looked really good in both of his appearances, but it's still way too early to tell if he's an answer.
It's hard to know where the Dodgers go from here. They've signed veterans with good track records to big contracts, and it's blown up in their faces (Matt Guerrier, Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, Brandon League). Now they're trying youth and power, and it's starting to come apart.
Right now, the Dodgers have the fourth best bullpen ERA in the National League at 3.09, but don't be fooled. That's mostly from the start of the season when they didn't even need Jansen to look untouchable. Now Jansen is back, looking fantastic, and they either can't get the ball to him, or he's suddenly unavailable for unknown reasons.
The Dodgers won the NL West last year with a struggling 'pen, and they were exposed by the Cardinals in the NLDS. This year, they shouldn't even count on getting that far, as you know the Giants won't be going anywhere, and if the Padres start playing up to their potential, they'll be there as well.
So like the title says, we can only hope Jansen's disappearing act was only for a night or two, and nothing more. But Jansen or not, the rest of the bullpen has got to step up and deliver. All of those innings in middle relief has got to be pitched by someone. And hopefully pitched well.
And that's being nice.
The latest example of a reliever melting down is Adam Liberatore. Actually, it's Yimi Garcia. No wait, it's J.P. Howell. On second thought, it's Chris Hatcher.
What do they all have in common? They all had a hand in blowing a 6-4, ninth inning lead to the Rockies on Wednesday, which soon lead to a painful 7-6 defeat in Colorado.
Painful, embarrassing... call it what you want. I'll call it pathetic, too.
One night after a thrilling comeback victory, highlighted by Alex Guerrero's go-ahead grand slam in the ninth, the Dodgers took one step back thanks to their shaky 'pen. Liberatore was perfect in the eighth, so with Kenley Jansen mysteriously unavailable, he started the ninth. A single and a ground rule double later, he was out of there.
Garcia wasn't any better, issuing two straight walks, one of which brought in a run to make it 6-5. Out he went, and in came Howell, who threw a low pitch that wasn't handled well by Yasmani Grandal for the passed ball, tying the game.
After an intentional walk to load the bases again, Hatcher gave up the walk-off sacrifice fly to Nolan Arenado, and that was that.
Simply put, the Dodgers just don't have a whole lot of options to rely on late in the game, save for Jansen of course. Liberatore has given up runs in two straight games. Garcia has fallen apart, allowing multiple baserunners in three straight appearances. If Hatcher even records an out it's considered an accomplishment.
Paco Rodriguez, Pedro Baez, and Joel Peralta are all hurt. About the only worthwhile guys are Howell and Juan Nicasio. Josh Ravin has looked really good in both of his appearances, but it's still way too early to tell if he's an answer.
It's hard to know where the Dodgers go from here. They've signed veterans with good track records to big contracts, and it's blown up in their faces (Matt Guerrier, Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, Brandon League). Now they're trying youth and power, and it's starting to come apart.
Right now, the Dodgers have the fourth best bullpen ERA in the National League at 3.09, but don't be fooled. That's mostly from the start of the season when they didn't even need Jansen to look untouchable. Now Jansen is back, looking fantastic, and they either can't get the ball to him, or he's suddenly unavailable for unknown reasons.
The Dodgers won the NL West last year with a struggling 'pen, and they were exposed by the Cardinals in the NLDS. This year, they shouldn't even count on getting that far, as you know the Giants won't be going anywhere, and if the Padres start playing up to their potential, they'll be there as well.
So like the title says, we can only hope Jansen's disappearing act was only for a night or two, and nothing more. But Jansen or not, the rest of the bullpen has got to step up and deliver. All of those innings in middle relief has got to be pitched by someone. And hopefully pitched well.
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Early Dodgers' All-Star candidates
As June is about to approach, the All-Star Game chatter will start to pick up. Here's an early look at who I believe has a realistic chance of representing the Dodgers in the Midsummer Classic for the National League.
Definitely:
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B. He still has some work to do in holding off big sluggers like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, and Lucas Duda. But for now, there's no denying that at .344 with 17 doubles, 10 homers, and 35 RBIs, A-Gon is more than deserving of the start. He's been the rock in the heart of the Dodgers' order.
Zack Greinke, SP. It's been Greinke, and not Clayton Kershaw, who's been the Dodgers' go-to guy on the mound. At 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, he's just behind A.J. Burnett for tops in the NL. He has a massive contract, and is pitching like a guy who wants to opt out and get an even more bloated one. Good for him.
Possibly:
Howie Kendrick, 2B. He's been everything the Dodgers hoped he would be: a solid hitter right next to A-Gon, and terrific with the glove. It won't be easy to make the squad, as there are three guys ahead of him with higher averages: Dee Gordon, DJ LeMahieu, and Kolten Wong. Plus, Joe Panik, Brandon Phillips, and Daniel Murphy are lurking right behind. It's actually a pretty deep position when you break it down.
Yasmani Grandal, C. The numbers are certainly there: .291 AVG, .403 OBP, 4 HR, 17 RBI. What's working against him is that in the NL, you'll always have to beat out Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Good luck with that! So maybe he slides in as the third catcher, which is possible.
Joc Pederson, CF. It's been quite the start to the season for Mr. All or Nothing, as he is tied for third in NL outfielders with 12 home runs, and has third to himself with 54 strikeouts. He's been a fun player to watch between the moonshots and the great glove in center, so he definitely has people's attention. There's just so much talent in the outfield already, it's going to be difficult to find a spot. But if he keeps putting up numbers and making highlight reels, he has a chance.
Kenley Jansen, RP. This one won't be easy, only because he missed so much time with the foot injury. But so far, he's been flawless with four saves, and is still striking out everyone left and right. He'll need a huge month of June to get consideration, but if his ERA is still miniscule, he might slip in.
Definitely:
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B. He still has some work to do in holding off big sluggers like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, and Lucas Duda. But for now, there's no denying that at .344 with 17 doubles, 10 homers, and 35 RBIs, A-Gon is more than deserving of the start. He's been the rock in the heart of the Dodgers' order.
Zack Greinke, SP. It's been Greinke, and not Clayton Kershaw, who's been the Dodgers' go-to guy on the mound. At 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, he's just behind A.J. Burnett for tops in the NL. He has a massive contract, and is pitching like a guy who wants to opt out and get an even more bloated one. Good for him.
Possibly:
Howie Kendrick, 2B. He's been everything the Dodgers hoped he would be: a solid hitter right next to A-Gon, and terrific with the glove. It won't be easy to make the squad, as there are three guys ahead of him with higher averages: Dee Gordon, DJ LeMahieu, and Kolten Wong. Plus, Joe Panik, Brandon Phillips, and Daniel Murphy are lurking right behind. It's actually a pretty deep position when you break it down.
Yasmani Grandal, C. The numbers are certainly there: .291 AVG, .403 OBP, 4 HR, 17 RBI. What's working against him is that in the NL, you'll always have to beat out Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Good luck with that! So maybe he slides in as the third catcher, which is possible.
Joc Pederson, CF. It's been quite the start to the season for Mr. All or Nothing, as he is tied for third in NL outfielders with 12 home runs, and has third to himself with 54 strikeouts. He's been a fun player to watch between the moonshots and the great glove in center, so he definitely has people's attention. There's just so much talent in the outfield already, it's going to be difficult to find a spot. But if he keeps putting up numbers and making highlight reels, he has a chance.
Kenley Jansen, RP. This one won't be easy, only because he missed so much time with the foot injury. But so far, he's been flawless with four saves, and is still striking out everyone left and right. He'll need a huge month of June to get consideration, but if his ERA is still miniscule, he might slip in.
Saturday, May 16, 2015
Kershaw and Jansen show the Dodgers at their best
For six innings of Clayton Kershaw, and one inning of Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers showed just how tough they can be when their big dogs are delivering on the mound.
For one of those innings in between, nearly everything slipped away, but we'll stay positive for now.
Kershaw was able to gather 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings, and Jansen got the rare four-strikeout inning in the eighth, as the Dodgers held off the Rockies in Dodger Stadium 6-4. After two straight games of blowing leads, the Dodgers were able to get back up to a five-game lead in the NL West thanks to the Padres getting blown out by the Nationals.
Kershaw had been waiting a few starts for win #100, and it finally came on Friday. It was smooth sailing through six, as his pitches looked sharper than his last few starts, and the offense built a 6-0 lead. His slider, which sometimes goes MIA, was back and getting lots of swings and misses.
The only problem was that his pitch count was getting way up there, as his location was better, but not where he normally is. That caused him to unravel a bit in the seventh, as he got a couple of outs, but was yanked with two on. Paco Rodriguez gave up a bases clearing double to Daniel Descalso, so Kershaw's final line looked a little worse than he probably deserved with three earned runs.
Earlier in the day, the Dodgers activated Jansen, who was not expected to be in any big situations right off the bat. Well, that's all well and good in theory, but with a struggling bullpen this week, those plans were thrown out the window as he entered a two-run game in the eighth.
The results? Absolute perfection. He struck out CarGo, who went to first when Yasmani Grandal couldn't catch the damn ball. No worries, as Jansen struck out the next three hitters swinging as well, emphatically ending the inning.
You can't possibly have a better return at a better time than Jansen did, as their young arms have taken a step back the last few games, and injuries to Joel Peralta and Pedro Baez have only made it worse. Don Mattingly may say he wants to ease Jansen back in, but give me a break. Give the guy the ball in the ninth and let him go! His cutter looked really good, so unleash him.
With an offense that is as deep as Andrew Friedman was hoping it would be, Kershaw and Jansen pitching at the top of their games show how good the Dodgers can be on any given night. These two are the best at what they do (starting pitcher and closer, of course), so when they pitch like that, it's all good.
There's a couple of important things for them to do from here on out: keep building on this success, and stay on the field! Heck, that's what every player wants to do, but with the D(L)odgers, it means even more. When they take the ball, the club expects big things from them, just like Friday night.
For one of those innings in between, nearly everything slipped away, but we'll stay positive for now.
Kershaw was able to gather 10 strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings, and Jansen got the rare four-strikeout inning in the eighth, as the Dodgers held off the Rockies in Dodger Stadium 6-4. After two straight games of blowing leads, the Dodgers were able to get back up to a five-game lead in the NL West thanks to the Padres getting blown out by the Nationals.
Kershaw had been waiting a few starts for win #100, and it finally came on Friday. It was smooth sailing through six, as his pitches looked sharper than his last few starts, and the offense built a 6-0 lead. His slider, which sometimes goes MIA, was back and getting lots of swings and misses.
The only problem was that his pitch count was getting way up there, as his location was better, but not where he normally is. That caused him to unravel a bit in the seventh, as he got a couple of outs, but was yanked with two on. Paco Rodriguez gave up a bases clearing double to Daniel Descalso, so Kershaw's final line looked a little worse than he probably deserved with three earned runs.
Earlier in the day, the Dodgers activated Jansen, who was not expected to be in any big situations right off the bat. Well, that's all well and good in theory, but with a struggling bullpen this week, those plans were thrown out the window as he entered a two-run game in the eighth.
The results? Absolute perfection. He struck out CarGo, who went to first when Yasmani Grandal couldn't catch the damn ball. No worries, as Jansen struck out the next three hitters swinging as well, emphatically ending the inning.
You can't possibly have a better return at a better time than Jansen did, as their young arms have taken a step back the last few games, and injuries to Joel Peralta and Pedro Baez have only made it worse. Don Mattingly may say he wants to ease Jansen back in, but give me a break. Give the guy the ball in the ninth and let him go! His cutter looked really good, so unleash him.
With an offense that is as deep as Andrew Friedman was hoping it would be, Kershaw and Jansen pitching at the top of their games show how good the Dodgers can be on any given night. These two are the best at what they do (starting pitcher and closer, of course), so when they pitch like that, it's all good.
There's a couple of important things for them to do from here on out: keep building on this success, and stay on the field! Heck, that's what every player wants to do, but with the D(L)odgers, it means even more. When they take the ball, the club expects big things from them, just like Friday night.
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
With Jansen out, who steps up to close?
Bad news coming out of LA yesterday, as Kenley Jansen will need 8-12 weeks to recover from left foot surgery. Jansen was recently working out at Dodger Stadium when he reported discomfort in that foot. Lo and behold, he has a growth on his fifth metatarsal, so he immediately when under the knife.
The news is bad, but not devastating only because of the timeframe it occurred. Yes, it would have been nice to get this over with all during the offseason, but Jansen had no control over that. Instead, he'll be looking at a mid-May return, which puts him out around a month and a half. That's much better than this happening smack dab in the middle of the season, at least.
So now, the Dodgers have a giant closer role to fill, which won't be easy considering Jansen had 44 saves last season. Let's take a look at potential options, both on the inside and out.
Current Bullpen - Joel Peralta, Pedro Baez, Chris Hatcher, Brandon League
The first guy to jump out would be Peralta, who's been pitching in the Bigs since 2005, but only has 12 career saves. He does get his fair share of strikeouts, though, so that could be a good sign that he can translate it to the ninth.
Baez is someone to keep an eye on. He only has 20 games of experience last season, but throws very hard and got in some action in the NLDS. He's also virtually unknown to people outside of big Dodger fans, which could help him against batters who are unfamiliar with him. Hey, that's how Eric Gagne got his start years ago, so you never know.
Hatcher is very much like Baez in that he doesn't have much experience, but throws hard and keeps his walks down, so he could emerge. I only included League because of his past experience closing, but it's a longshot. And quite frankly, if the Dodgers have him going in the ninth, it's because everyone else has flopped so miserably, they had to resort to him.
Minor League Invites to Spring Training - Sergio Santos, David Aardsma
Santos could be an intriguing option if he can get things together in the spring. He saved 30 games with the White Sox in 2011, but hasn't come anywhere close to that since then. Last season was a complete disaster with the Blue Jays, compiling an 8.57 ERA in 28 games. It's no wonder his stock is way down, but if his arm is right, the history of brief success is there.
Aardsma had two excellent seasons as the Mariners' closer in 2009-10, collecting 38 and 31 saves, respectively. After injuries set in, he had a very good season pitching for the Cardinals' Triple-A affiliate last year, and went to the Dodgers after attracting interest from quite a few teams in the offseason. Like Santos, if the injuries are behind him, then he could be a sleeper.
Free Agents - Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano
K-Rod came out of nowhere for an excellent 2014 campaign, saving 44 games for the Brewers. He's still unsigned, and latest word is that he's seeking a two-year deal, or a $10 million deal for a season. There's obvious hesitancy in giving him so much money, as he's about to enter his 14th season. Plus, it's hard to know if he can come anywhere close to last season's types of numbers again.
Soriano has saved 40+ games three times since 2010, and 32 last season, albeit with seven blown saves. So, it's a bit surprising that he still hasn't signed with any club, as he has a career 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. It could be a money thing like K-Rod, as he views himself as a top-tier closer who will only sign for what he wants.
Trade Candidate - Jonathan Papelbon
With the Phillies practically a sinking ship, you would think they'll finally be serious about rebuilding this season. Cole Hamels is the hottest name in trade talks, but Papelbon could be right behind. As this great article from John Stolnis points out, Papelbon is probably a better option than K-Rod, and if the Phillies eat some of his money, could be less expensive as well.
My Take:
I don't see the Dodgers reaching out for either of the big two free agents, or a trade for Paps. The only way a trade occurs is if the Phillies really want to move on from him, but that probably wouldn't happen until later in the season.
I do see someone from the Santos/Aardsma combination making the big club, then getting thrown into the fire. There's no real competition in LA right now, as every other option is not a true closer. Peralta is better suited for a setup role, and who knows if Baez and Hatcher are ready for such a role.
Spring Training just got a whole lot more interesting, as it will be fun to watch these many options duke it out and step up into that role for the first few weeks of the season. I just hope someone can hold the fort down for the time being so Jansen doesn't feel the need to rush back too soon. The last thing the Dodgers need is for Jansen's injury to linger all season long.
The news is bad, but not devastating only because of the timeframe it occurred. Yes, it would have been nice to get this over with all during the offseason, but Jansen had no control over that. Instead, he'll be looking at a mid-May return, which puts him out around a month and a half. That's much better than this happening smack dab in the middle of the season, at least.
So now, the Dodgers have a giant closer role to fill, which won't be easy considering Jansen had 44 saves last season. Let's take a look at potential options, both on the inside and out.
Current Bullpen - Joel Peralta, Pedro Baez, Chris Hatcher, Brandon League
The first guy to jump out would be Peralta, who's been pitching in the Bigs since 2005, but only has 12 career saves. He does get his fair share of strikeouts, though, so that could be a good sign that he can translate it to the ninth.
Baez is someone to keep an eye on. He only has 20 games of experience last season, but throws very hard and got in some action in the NLDS. He's also virtually unknown to people outside of big Dodger fans, which could help him against batters who are unfamiliar with him. Hey, that's how Eric Gagne got his start years ago, so you never know.
Hatcher is very much like Baez in that he doesn't have much experience, but throws hard and keeps his walks down, so he could emerge. I only included League because of his past experience closing, but it's a longshot. And quite frankly, if the Dodgers have him going in the ninth, it's because everyone else has flopped so miserably, they had to resort to him.
Minor League Invites to Spring Training - Sergio Santos, David Aardsma
Santos could be an intriguing option if he can get things together in the spring. He saved 30 games with the White Sox in 2011, but hasn't come anywhere close to that since then. Last season was a complete disaster with the Blue Jays, compiling an 8.57 ERA in 28 games. It's no wonder his stock is way down, but if his arm is right, the history of brief success is there.
Aardsma had two excellent seasons as the Mariners' closer in 2009-10, collecting 38 and 31 saves, respectively. After injuries set in, he had a very good season pitching for the Cardinals' Triple-A affiliate last year, and went to the Dodgers after attracting interest from quite a few teams in the offseason. Like Santos, if the injuries are behind him, then he could be a sleeper.
Free Agents - Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano
K-Rod came out of nowhere for an excellent 2014 campaign, saving 44 games for the Brewers. He's still unsigned, and latest word is that he's seeking a two-year deal, or a $10 million deal for a season. There's obvious hesitancy in giving him so much money, as he's about to enter his 14th season. Plus, it's hard to know if he can come anywhere close to last season's types of numbers again.
Soriano has saved 40+ games three times since 2010, and 32 last season, albeit with seven blown saves. So, it's a bit surprising that he still hasn't signed with any club, as he has a career 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. It could be a money thing like K-Rod, as he views himself as a top-tier closer who will only sign for what he wants.
Trade Candidate - Jonathan Papelbon
With the Phillies practically a sinking ship, you would think they'll finally be serious about rebuilding this season. Cole Hamels is the hottest name in trade talks, but Papelbon could be right behind. As this great article from John Stolnis points out, Papelbon is probably a better option than K-Rod, and if the Phillies eat some of his money, could be less expensive as well.
My Take:
I don't see the Dodgers reaching out for either of the big two free agents, or a trade for Paps. The only way a trade occurs is if the Phillies really want to move on from him, but that probably wouldn't happen until later in the season.
I do see someone from the Santos/Aardsma combination making the big club, then getting thrown into the fire. There's no real competition in LA right now, as every other option is not a true closer. Peralta is better suited for a setup role, and who knows if Baez and Hatcher are ready for such a role.
Spring Training just got a whole lot more interesting, as it will be fun to watch these many options duke it out and step up into that role for the first few weeks of the season. I just hope someone can hold the fort down for the time being so Jansen doesn't feel the need to rush back too soon. The last thing the Dodgers need is for Jansen's injury to linger all season long.
Monday, February 9, 2015
2015 Season Preview: Bullpen
Here is the second installment in my season preview series. Last season, the bullpen was a huge weak spot on a division winning team, as the Dodgers had a very difficult time getting the ball to their dominant closer, Kenley Jansen. It ended up being one of the big reasons they Dodgers went four and out in the playoffs.
So, have the flurry of moves made this unit stronger heading in '15? Let's take a look.
2014
Closer - Kenley Jansen
Setup - Brian Wilson
J.P. Howell
Brandon League
Chris Perez
Jamey Wright
Pedro Baez
2015
Closer - Kenley Jansen
Setup - Joel Peralta
J.P. Howell
Pedro Baez
Brandon League
Juan Nicasio
Chris Hatcher
Then Compared to Now:
Right off the bat, what jumps out is the addition by subtraction. That is, getting rid of dead weight in Wilson and Perez. They both were so horrendous last season, it's hard to imagine those two signings going any worse. Wilson had a 4.66 ERA in 61 games, and Perez collected a 4.27 in 49. Awful, just awful. Good riddance!
In their places come Peralta, Nicasio, and Hatcher. The biggest name is Peralta, who's coming off of three straight seasons of more strikeouts than innings pitched. But, he's also seen his ERA creep up the last few seasons as well. Like Peralta, Hatcher relies on his fastball to blow hitters away, so the strikeout is always a possibility.
Howell will look to pitch more like the guy the first few months of the season, and less like the one who was knocked around at the end. Baez will look to step up into a bigger role, and Nicasio will look to play the swingman role of long reliever and spot starter.
Individual Breakdown:
Jansen (2014 stats): 2-3, 44 SV, 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 101 K's in 65 1/2 IP
After some bumps in the road to start the season, he really turned it on as the summer months got hotter and hotter. The result was another terrific season in which he by far posted his most career saves. He's in love with the cutter, and when it has a sharp bite, it's practically unhittable. When he mixes in softer stuff like a slider, he's even more effective. He's only 27 with not much mileage, so the Dodgers have very little worry that he'll continue that success.
Peralta (with Rays): 3-4, 1 SV, 18 HLD, 4.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 74 K's in 63 1/3 IP
The good news is that he can't possibly be worse than Wilson in the setup role (right?). The bad news is that he appears to be going in the same direction as Wilson. Of course, that's not to say he'll completely fall off the map too, as I can't imagine he'll get roughed up nearly as bad as The Beard did. The strikeouts are still there, and he only walked 15 last season in 69 appearances, which is very good. With an improved defense behind him, those are reasons to believe he'll be effective. Is he an everyday setup man? That might be a stretch, but we shall see.
Howell: 3-3, 27 HLD, 2.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 48 K's in 49 IP
It's a shame he started getting shelled in September, because before that, he was really, really good. And what do you know, he's once again the only lefty in the bullpen. Like it or not, he's the man to face tough lefties. He's not going to blow you away, as he's a location and breaking ball type of guy. When it's working, it's good. When it's not, it's practically batting practice. Maybe he just ran out of steam last season, so hopefully he can be fresher down the stretch, because he'll be needed.
Baez: 0-0, 5 HLD, 2.63 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 18 K's in 24 IP
In his first season, he only appeared in 20 games, so the sample size is small. Even with that, he was thrust right into the spotlight of the postseason, giving up a huge three-run shot to Matt Holliday in that epic meltdown in Game 1 against the Cardinals. Still, I like what he offers, as he throws hard and seems to have good composure on the mound. With Chris Withrow most likely out for all of 2015, his role will be increased even more.
League: 2-3, 11 HLD, 2.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 38 K's in 63 IP
What a roller coaster ride it's been for him since being traded to the Dodgers from the Mariners in 2012. He went from closer of the future to a complete waste of a big money deal. Then he posted a fantastic ERA last season, but a very high WHIP showed just how often he was playing with fire. At this point, he is what he is - a guy who will fool some with his breaking stuff, and will go through awful stretches where he lets everyone on base. He survived the offseason without getting canned, but if he falters once again, he'll be sent packing.
Nicasio (with Rockies): 6-6, 1 HLD, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 63 K's in 93 2/3 IP
The best thing for any young pitcher is to finally get out of Coors Field, as he owns a 5.24 career ERA at home. It's not like he lit it up on the road, though, with a 4.81 ERA. Still, he has to feel great about coming to the Dodgers and taking the ball in a much friendlier ballpark. If there's a silver lining, he's made six career starts in LA (seven games overall), and owns a 3.63 ERA. That's something to build on.
Hatcher (with Marlins): 0-3, 6 HLD, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 60 K's in 56 IP
Like Jansen, he was once a catcher who converted to a hard throwing reliever. His first few seasons weren't so hot, but after getting called up in late May with the Marlins last season, put together a good season. He throws hard and keeps his walks low, which is always a good combination. Right now he's a young, power arm on the rise, so if he can keep missing bats and avoid the free passes, he'll be a good weapon.
Other Names to Remember: Daniel Coulombe, Carlos Frias, Yimi Garcia, Paco Rodriguez
Is Now Better Than Then?
The Dodgers could pair just about anyone up with Jansen and be considered better this season. They absolutely needed to dump Wilson, even if it cost them $10 million in dead salary. Big deal, it needed to be done. And thank the Lord that it did.
The guys who were brought in - Peralta, Hatcher, and Nicasio - aren't names that will jump off the page, and will have to prove that they can be the answer. Peralta appears to be the first in line to pitch the eighth, and finally give a reliable bridge to Jansen in the ninth. That, in my opinion, was the biggest Achilles' heel of the Dodgers last year, so that's something that absolutely needs to get better if they want to take the next step in the playoffs. If not Peralta, then maybe a surprise name such as Baez or Hatcher can be that guy.
Two other guys who are gone from last year are Wright and Perez, as their best days are clearly behind them. Because of those subtractions, I'll easily take this year's squad as an upgrade over last year's. But, does that mean this year's group is good? There's always a huge plus with Jansen at the end, but the newcomers and young guys like Baez will have to show they can put up consistent numbers all season long to be one of the better bullpens in baseball.
So, have the flurry of moves made this unit stronger heading in '15? Let's take a look.
2014
Closer - Kenley Jansen
Setup - Brian Wilson
J.P. Howell
Brandon League
Chris Perez
Jamey Wright
Pedro Baez
2015
Closer - Kenley Jansen
Setup - Joel Peralta
J.P. Howell
Pedro Baez
Brandon League
Juan Nicasio
Chris Hatcher
Then Compared to Now:
Right off the bat, what jumps out is the addition by subtraction. That is, getting rid of dead weight in Wilson and Perez. They both were so horrendous last season, it's hard to imagine those two signings going any worse. Wilson had a 4.66 ERA in 61 games, and Perez collected a 4.27 in 49. Awful, just awful. Good riddance!
In their places come Peralta, Nicasio, and Hatcher. The biggest name is Peralta, who's coming off of three straight seasons of more strikeouts than innings pitched. But, he's also seen his ERA creep up the last few seasons as well. Like Peralta, Hatcher relies on his fastball to blow hitters away, so the strikeout is always a possibility.
Howell will look to pitch more like the guy the first few months of the season, and less like the one who was knocked around at the end. Baez will look to step up into a bigger role, and Nicasio will look to play the swingman role of long reliever and spot starter.
Individual Breakdown:
Jansen (2014 stats): 2-3, 44 SV, 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 101 K's in 65 1/2 IP
After some bumps in the road to start the season, he really turned it on as the summer months got hotter and hotter. The result was another terrific season in which he by far posted his most career saves. He's in love with the cutter, and when it has a sharp bite, it's practically unhittable. When he mixes in softer stuff like a slider, he's even more effective. He's only 27 with not much mileage, so the Dodgers have very little worry that he'll continue that success.
Peralta (with Rays): 3-4, 1 SV, 18 HLD, 4.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 74 K's in 63 1/3 IP
The good news is that he can't possibly be worse than Wilson in the setup role (right?). The bad news is that he appears to be going in the same direction as Wilson. Of course, that's not to say he'll completely fall off the map too, as I can't imagine he'll get roughed up nearly as bad as The Beard did. The strikeouts are still there, and he only walked 15 last season in 69 appearances, which is very good. With an improved defense behind him, those are reasons to believe he'll be effective. Is he an everyday setup man? That might be a stretch, but we shall see.
Howell: 3-3, 27 HLD, 2.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 48 K's in 49 IP
It's a shame he started getting shelled in September, because before that, he was really, really good. And what do you know, he's once again the only lefty in the bullpen. Like it or not, he's the man to face tough lefties. He's not going to blow you away, as he's a location and breaking ball type of guy. When it's working, it's good. When it's not, it's practically batting practice. Maybe he just ran out of steam last season, so hopefully he can be fresher down the stretch, because he'll be needed.
Baez: 0-0, 5 HLD, 2.63 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 18 K's in 24 IP
In his first season, he only appeared in 20 games, so the sample size is small. Even with that, he was thrust right into the spotlight of the postseason, giving up a huge three-run shot to Matt Holliday in that epic meltdown in Game 1 against the Cardinals. Still, I like what he offers, as he throws hard and seems to have good composure on the mound. With Chris Withrow most likely out for all of 2015, his role will be increased even more.
League: 2-3, 11 HLD, 2.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 38 K's in 63 IP
What a roller coaster ride it's been for him since being traded to the Dodgers from the Mariners in 2012. He went from closer of the future to a complete waste of a big money deal. Then he posted a fantastic ERA last season, but a very high WHIP showed just how often he was playing with fire. At this point, he is what he is - a guy who will fool some with his breaking stuff, and will go through awful stretches where he lets everyone on base. He survived the offseason without getting canned, but if he falters once again, he'll be sent packing.
Nicasio (with Rockies): 6-6, 1 HLD, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 63 K's in 93 2/3 IP
The best thing for any young pitcher is to finally get out of Coors Field, as he owns a 5.24 career ERA at home. It's not like he lit it up on the road, though, with a 4.81 ERA. Still, he has to feel great about coming to the Dodgers and taking the ball in a much friendlier ballpark. If there's a silver lining, he's made six career starts in LA (seven games overall), and owns a 3.63 ERA. That's something to build on.
Hatcher (with Marlins): 0-3, 6 HLD, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 60 K's in 56 IP
Like Jansen, he was once a catcher who converted to a hard throwing reliever. His first few seasons weren't so hot, but after getting called up in late May with the Marlins last season, put together a good season. He throws hard and keeps his walks low, which is always a good combination. Right now he's a young, power arm on the rise, so if he can keep missing bats and avoid the free passes, he'll be a good weapon.
Other Names to Remember: Daniel Coulombe, Carlos Frias, Yimi Garcia, Paco Rodriguez
Is Now Better Than Then?
The Dodgers could pair just about anyone up with Jansen and be considered better this season. They absolutely needed to dump Wilson, even if it cost them $10 million in dead salary. Big deal, it needed to be done. And thank the Lord that it did.
The guys who were brought in - Peralta, Hatcher, and Nicasio - aren't names that will jump off the page, and will have to prove that they can be the answer. Peralta appears to be the first in line to pitch the eighth, and finally give a reliable bridge to Jansen in the ninth. That, in my opinion, was the biggest Achilles' heel of the Dodgers last year, so that's something that absolutely needs to get better if they want to take the next step in the playoffs. If not Peralta, then maybe a surprise name such as Baez or Hatcher can be that guy.
Two other guys who are gone from last year are Wright and Perez, as their best days are clearly behind them. Because of those subtractions, I'll easily take this year's squad as an upgrade over last year's. But, does that mean this year's group is good? There's always a huge plus with Jansen at the end, but the newcomers and young guys like Baez will have to show they can put up consistent numbers all season long to be one of the better bullpens in baseball.
Saturday, August 16, 2014
8th inning could be the Dodgers downfall
Remember last season when Brian Wilson was signed, and the Dodgers had the ultimate 1-2 punch with Kenley Jansen down the stretch and in the postseason?
Well, it sure was fun while it lasted.
The combination of Jamey Wright and Brandon League were the latest to not get the job done in the setup role, as they turned a 2-0 lead into a 5-2 deficit, and the Dodgers dropped one to the Brewers 6-3. At least the Phillies had a comeback of their own in beating the Giants, so the lead in the NL West remains 5 1/2.
To say the eighth inning was ugly would be an understatement. Here's the final tally: nine batters, four hits, five runs, one walk, one strikeout. Most of that damage was done against Wright, who gave up four of those hits and one intentional walk. Even his one out was a hard lineout by Jonathan Lucroy leading off. Every ball hit against him was hard.
League was put in a tough situation of the bases loaded and one out, but he did get Rickie Weeks swinging for two down. But, as has been the case over his three-year deal worth $22.5 million, he couldn't get a second big out, as Lyle Overbay's double cleared the bases and any hope of the Dodgers winning. It was pathetic.
There's no doubt in my mind that the biggest issue the Dodgers face right now is bridging the gap to Jansen. There certainly isn't a Wilson circa 2013 Don Mattingly can turn to. Wilson, by the way, had an 0.66 ERA in 18 appearances last season. Little did we realize just how much we'd miss that version of Wilson.
About the only reliable guy in the 'pen before Jansen is J.P. Howell, but he's not your prototypical setup man. He relies on the soft stuff, and is very effective at it. In 39 1/3 innings, he has a 1.37 ERA. I think Mattingly should just ignore the lefty-righty stuff and pitch him more in the eighth regardless. It certainly can't hurt.
But other than Howell... yikes. It's just a whole lot of nothing to turn to. Here's my breakdown of the other choices, and why they're.... well, not good choices:
Wilson - 5.26 ERA, and can't seem to pitch a clean eighth
League - Much better ERA at 2.32, but the bigger the pressure, the worse he gets
Wright - Had a chance to make a positive impression, and showed why he's much more suited to pitching earlier in the game
Chris Perez - Currently on the DL, and when he's back, has absolutely no business taking the mound in any inning
Pedro Baez and Carlos Frias - Too young and inexperienced to pitch in a big situation. But then again, it's not like they can do any worse, so why not try them?
So like I said, there just aren't any solid options to turn to. I actually liked it on Friday night when Donny gave Wright a chance to do the job. It definitely backfired, but the other options are so bad, it was worth a shot.
This is definitely a big concern heading into the postseason. The only positive is that the Dodgers have really good starting pitching in Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu (who hopefully can rest his sore butt!). They can pitch deep into games, which would then limit the amount of relievers needed. We hope.
If I'm Jansen, I'm making sure my arm is plenty rested and ready to go in October. I absolutely think Donny will call upon him in the eighth for more than the traditional three-out save. Donny really has no choice. Might as well skip all the other bums and go with the Big Dog.
Will someone actually step up and finally claim that setup role over the final month-and-a-half? That will be the major question facing the Dodgers the rest of the season.
Well, it sure was fun while it lasted.
The combination of Jamey Wright and Brandon League were the latest to not get the job done in the setup role, as they turned a 2-0 lead into a 5-2 deficit, and the Dodgers dropped one to the Brewers 6-3. At least the Phillies had a comeback of their own in beating the Giants, so the lead in the NL West remains 5 1/2.
To say the eighth inning was ugly would be an understatement. Here's the final tally: nine batters, four hits, five runs, one walk, one strikeout. Most of that damage was done against Wright, who gave up four of those hits and one intentional walk. Even his one out was a hard lineout by Jonathan Lucroy leading off. Every ball hit against him was hard.
League was put in a tough situation of the bases loaded and one out, but he did get Rickie Weeks swinging for two down. But, as has been the case over his three-year deal worth $22.5 million, he couldn't get a second big out, as Lyle Overbay's double cleared the bases and any hope of the Dodgers winning. It was pathetic.
There's no doubt in my mind that the biggest issue the Dodgers face right now is bridging the gap to Jansen. There certainly isn't a Wilson circa 2013 Don Mattingly can turn to. Wilson, by the way, had an 0.66 ERA in 18 appearances last season. Little did we realize just how much we'd miss that version of Wilson.
About the only reliable guy in the 'pen before Jansen is J.P. Howell, but he's not your prototypical setup man. He relies on the soft stuff, and is very effective at it. In 39 1/3 innings, he has a 1.37 ERA. I think Mattingly should just ignore the lefty-righty stuff and pitch him more in the eighth regardless. It certainly can't hurt.
But other than Howell... yikes. It's just a whole lot of nothing to turn to. Here's my breakdown of the other choices, and why they're.... well, not good choices:
Wilson - 5.26 ERA, and can't seem to pitch a clean eighth
League - Much better ERA at 2.32, but the bigger the pressure, the worse he gets
Wright - Had a chance to make a positive impression, and showed why he's much more suited to pitching earlier in the game
Chris Perez - Currently on the DL, and when he's back, has absolutely no business taking the mound in any inning
Pedro Baez and Carlos Frias - Too young and inexperienced to pitch in a big situation. But then again, it's not like they can do any worse, so why not try them?
So like I said, there just aren't any solid options to turn to. I actually liked it on Friday night when Donny gave Wright a chance to do the job. It definitely backfired, but the other options are so bad, it was worth a shot.
This is definitely a big concern heading into the postseason. The only positive is that the Dodgers have really good starting pitching in Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Hyun-Jin Ryu (who hopefully can rest his sore butt!). They can pitch deep into games, which would then limit the amount of relievers needed. We hope.
If I'm Jansen, I'm making sure my arm is plenty rested and ready to go in October. I absolutely think Donny will call upon him in the eighth for more than the traditional three-out save. Donny really has no choice. Might as well skip all the other bums and go with the Big Dog.
Will someone actually step up and finally claim that setup role over the final month-and-a-half? That will be the major question facing the Dodgers the rest of the season.
Sunday, July 13, 2014
1-0, again? Sure, the Dodgers will take it
For as bad as the offense has been this week for the Dodgers, there were some good things to come out of Sunday's game: they won, they took three of four from the Padres, they have the best record in the National League, and Hyun-Jin Ryu more than shook off getting creamed in Detroit.
So, despite one run for the second straight night, it's another win for the Dodgers over the Padres.
Hey, at least they did better than one run on four hits on Saturday, right?
If you want to read about how poorly the Dodgers have been performing at the plate, then take a look at my article on yesterday's game. I could have written the same exact thing today, because Yasiel Puig's RBI single in the sixth was the lone highlight of the game for either team. Tyson Ross, Ryu, and a few relievers completely shut these teams down.
What I will focus on is just that, the pitching. The start of the Dodgers' offensive ineptitude began on Tuesday against the Tigers. After taking a 5-0 lead in the first inning off of Justin Verlander, Ryu got pounded for 10 hits and seven runs in 2 1/3 innings as the Dodgers got destroyed 14-5. Today Ryu went six innings for two hits, no runs, no walks, and 10 strikeouts. His off speed stuff was awesome.
From there, Brandon League, J.P. Howell, and Kenley Jansen combined to shut the door. League was a little shaky, walking Yasmani Grandal and giving up a single to Cameron Maybin. Howell put out that fire when Brooks Conrad lined to Carl Crawford in left.
Howell stayed on in the eighth, still with only the one-run lead. Even though Adrian Gonzalez dropped a throw to first for an error, Howell had no issues. At the break, he has a 1.32 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 19 holds. Lefties are 8-for-56 (.143) and righties are 9-for-54 (.167) against him. Very quietly, he's turned into one of the best middle relievers in baseball.
Jansen had to toughen up today for the save, as he walked Carlos Quentin on a very close full count pitch, then watched Grandal bounce a single into right with an out. Two strikeouts later, the game was over for his 27th save.
Back on June 20, Jansen blew his third save in San Diego, giving up three runs in the ninth and being hit all over the place. His nine appearances since then? All perfect, collecting seven saves and a win while lowering his ERA from 4.55 to 3.49. He also has more K's (13) than walks (1) and hits (5) combined. He's finally mixing up his pitches and figuring things out.
Other thoughts from the game:
* OK, so here's a bit more talk about the offense. Matt Kemp didn't start (good move), but pinch-hit in the eighth with Puig on second and two outs (bad move). Predictably, he struck out. Man, he really stinks now. That's all I've got to say about that.
* I don't think I've ever seen A.J. Ellis yell and get visibly upset at himself during a game before, but that's exactly what happened after he K'd with two on and none out in the second. He's had a rough year between injuries and a big lack of production at the plate and in not throwing out stealers. Let's hope the All-Star break does him some good.
* It was good to see Crawford get the start in left, as he singled and walked in four at-bats. Like I wrote about recently, there's no way Kemp should be handed every start in left. Give me a break. Let's see what Crawford can do with more time. Better than watching Matt "Swing and a Miss" Kemp.
* Can you tell I'm down on Kemp?
* Ross is a very good young pitcher. His slider is practically untouchable. I initially wasn't so sure about him making the All-Star team, but he showed he deserves it today. Too bad for him his team sucks behind him.
Every team in baseball will take the next four days off, then return to action Friday. The Dodgers will be in St. Louis, and Dan Haren will get the ball. Gee, if that doesn't get you pumped for Friday, then I don't know what will!
So, despite one run for the second straight night, it's another win for the Dodgers over the Padres.
Hey, at least they did better than one run on four hits on Saturday, right?
If you want to read about how poorly the Dodgers have been performing at the plate, then take a look at my article on yesterday's game. I could have written the same exact thing today, because Yasiel Puig's RBI single in the sixth was the lone highlight of the game for either team. Tyson Ross, Ryu, and a few relievers completely shut these teams down.
What I will focus on is just that, the pitching. The start of the Dodgers' offensive ineptitude began on Tuesday against the Tigers. After taking a 5-0 lead in the first inning off of Justin Verlander, Ryu got pounded for 10 hits and seven runs in 2 1/3 innings as the Dodgers got destroyed 14-5. Today Ryu went six innings for two hits, no runs, no walks, and 10 strikeouts. His off speed stuff was awesome.
From there, Brandon League, J.P. Howell, and Kenley Jansen combined to shut the door. League was a little shaky, walking Yasmani Grandal and giving up a single to Cameron Maybin. Howell put out that fire when Brooks Conrad lined to Carl Crawford in left.
Howell stayed on in the eighth, still with only the one-run lead. Even though Adrian Gonzalez dropped a throw to first for an error, Howell had no issues. At the break, he has a 1.32 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 19 holds. Lefties are 8-for-56 (.143) and righties are 9-for-54 (.167) against him. Very quietly, he's turned into one of the best middle relievers in baseball.
Jansen had to toughen up today for the save, as he walked Carlos Quentin on a very close full count pitch, then watched Grandal bounce a single into right with an out. Two strikeouts later, the game was over for his 27th save.
Back on June 20, Jansen blew his third save in San Diego, giving up three runs in the ninth and being hit all over the place. His nine appearances since then? All perfect, collecting seven saves and a win while lowering his ERA from 4.55 to 3.49. He also has more K's (13) than walks (1) and hits (5) combined. He's finally mixing up his pitches and figuring things out.
Other thoughts from the game:
* OK, so here's a bit more talk about the offense. Matt Kemp didn't start (good move), but pinch-hit in the eighth with Puig on second and two outs (bad move). Predictably, he struck out. Man, he really stinks now. That's all I've got to say about that.
* I don't think I've ever seen A.J. Ellis yell and get visibly upset at himself during a game before, but that's exactly what happened after he K'd with two on and none out in the second. He's had a rough year between injuries and a big lack of production at the plate and in not throwing out stealers. Let's hope the All-Star break does him some good.
* It was good to see Crawford get the start in left, as he singled and walked in four at-bats. Like I wrote about recently, there's no way Kemp should be handed every start in left. Give me a break. Let's see what Crawford can do with more time. Better than watching Matt "Swing and a Miss" Kemp.
* Can you tell I'm down on Kemp?
* Ross is a very good young pitcher. His slider is practically untouchable. I initially wasn't so sure about him making the All-Star team, but he showed he deserves it today. Too bad for him his team sucks behind him.
Every team in baseball will take the next four days off, then return to action Friday. The Dodgers will be in St. Louis, and Dan Haren will get the ball. Gee, if that doesn't get you pumped for Friday, then I don't know what will!
Monday, June 23, 2014
Updated look at possible All-Stars
About a month ago I blogged about potential All-Star selections for the Dodgers. With a little over three weeks to go until the game, here's my updated look at who I think has a chance to represent the Dodgers:
Definitely
Yasiel Puig, OF. He's currently leading the National League in outfield voting, and rightfully so. A rough stretch in June has dipped his average to .317, but there's no denying he's the complete package this season and deserves to start. I just hope he doesn't tear some arm ligaments trying to make some crazy throw.
Clayton Kershaw, SP. The last time I discussed this subject, he was just coming back from his shoulder injury. Then he reminded everyone just how good he is with a no-hitter against the Rockies in one of the most dominating pitching performances ever. Currently at 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, he's earned his way back in.
Dee Gordon, 2B. While he's slipped to third in NL voting, he should be a backup to Chase Utley at second. He's still tops in baseball with 39 steals, besting Billy Hamilton by 8. And if you're beating Hamilton in that category, you must be doing something right. His defense has been much-improved of late as well, so he'll be fine.
Josh Beckett, SP. As if throwing a no-hitter against the Phillies wasn't convincing enough, then the fact that he's only getting better as the season wears on should be. His 5-4 record doesn't come close to telling an accurate story of how good he's been. Being third in the NL with a 2.28 ERA does, and his 1.02 WHIP is fourth.
Possibly
Zack Greinke, SP. I bumped him down a notch from last time for a couple of reasons. One, he's been a little bit off in June with a 3.60 ERA in four starts. Two, he's more victimized by Kershaw and Beckett, who've been better. There's nothing against the rules of having three starting pitchers from the same team, and it can definitely happen here. I think he will get in, as he's 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Those are All-Star numbers when it's all said and done.
Kenley Jansen, RP. The good news is that he's tied for second in the NL with 22 saves, three behind Francisco Rodriguez for the lead. The bad news is that he's done that with a 4.26 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, hardly All-Star numbers. And as you saw on Friday night against the lowly Padres, he gets hit around too much. What could convince those making the choices are his saves and his NL-leading 53 strikeouts among relievers. This one could go either way.
J.P. Howell, RP. Since the All-Star "counts" now, I'll throw his name out there as a situational lefty. He's tied for third in the NL with 17 holds, and owns a 1.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. It's not uncommon anymore for middle relievers to get some All-Star love, just like Hong-Chih Kuo did back in 2010. The only roadblock is Tony Watson of the Pirates has better numbers and is also a lefty, so we'll see what happens.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP. A pure darkhorse candidate at this point since the NL is loaded with quality starting pitching. He is 9-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, so if some pitchers are hurt or ineligible because of not enough rest, Ryu's name could be floated out there as a replacement.
Names Added: Howell, Ryu
Names Bumped: Adrian Gonzalez, Juan Uribe
Definitely
Yasiel Puig, OF. He's currently leading the National League in outfield voting, and rightfully so. A rough stretch in June has dipped his average to .317, but there's no denying he's the complete package this season and deserves to start. I just hope he doesn't tear some arm ligaments trying to make some crazy throw.
Clayton Kershaw, SP. The last time I discussed this subject, he was just coming back from his shoulder injury. Then he reminded everyone just how good he is with a no-hitter against the Rockies in one of the most dominating pitching performances ever. Currently at 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, he's earned his way back in.
Dee Gordon, 2B. While he's slipped to third in NL voting, he should be a backup to Chase Utley at second. He's still tops in baseball with 39 steals, besting Billy Hamilton by 8. And if you're beating Hamilton in that category, you must be doing something right. His defense has been much-improved of late as well, so he'll be fine.
Josh Beckett, SP. As if throwing a no-hitter against the Phillies wasn't convincing enough, then the fact that he's only getting better as the season wears on should be. His 5-4 record doesn't come close to telling an accurate story of how good he's been. Being third in the NL with a 2.28 ERA does, and his 1.02 WHIP is fourth.
Possibly
Zack Greinke, SP. I bumped him down a notch from last time for a couple of reasons. One, he's been a little bit off in June with a 3.60 ERA in four starts. Two, he's more victimized by Kershaw and Beckett, who've been better. There's nothing against the rules of having three starting pitchers from the same team, and it can definitely happen here. I think he will get in, as he's 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Those are All-Star numbers when it's all said and done.
Kenley Jansen, RP. The good news is that he's tied for second in the NL with 22 saves, three behind Francisco Rodriguez for the lead. The bad news is that he's done that with a 4.26 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, hardly All-Star numbers. And as you saw on Friday night against the lowly Padres, he gets hit around too much. What could convince those making the choices are his saves and his NL-leading 53 strikeouts among relievers. This one could go either way.
J.P. Howell, RP. Since the All-Star "counts" now, I'll throw his name out there as a situational lefty. He's tied for third in the NL with 17 holds, and owns a 1.61 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. It's not uncommon anymore for middle relievers to get some All-Star love, just like Hong-Chih Kuo did back in 2010. The only roadblock is Tony Watson of the Pirates has better numbers and is also a lefty, so we'll see what happens.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP. A pure darkhorse candidate at this point since the NL is loaded with quality starting pitching. He is 9-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, so if some pitchers are hurt or ineligible because of not enough rest, Ryu's name could be floated out there as a replacement.
Names Added: Howell, Ryu
Names Bumped: Adrian Gonzalez, Juan Uribe
Sunday, June 22, 2014
It all could come down to the bullpen for the Dodgers
One night after Kenley Jansen's horrific blown save against the Padres, the Dodgers bounced right back behind seven shutout innings from Josh Beckett. Saturday was a solid night, as Dee Gordon scored twice and stole his 39th base, Hanley Ramirez drove in two, and Justin Turner had two hits. Jansen even got the save, regaining some momentum from the night before.
The Dodgers have been better in June with an 11-8 record, but one issue remains that could hold them back: the bullpen has got to get better.
The last two games in San Diego are the perfect example. Friday night was just brutal to watch. Dan Haren was pretty good, giving the Dodgers 5 2/3 innings for three runs. J.P. Howell and Brandon League both got a couple of outs to get into the eighth up 5-3.
Before the season, if you were to be told that the Dodgers have a two-run lead heading into the eighth, you would've been happy since Brian Wilson and Jansen were coming in. But reality has been much different than on paper, and both have underachieved.
Wilson was very fortunate to escape the eighth unharmed, as Scott Van Slyke, subbing for an injured Yasiel Puig, made a great running catch in right to prevent a run from being scored.
Then Jansen blew the save in the ninth, getting knocked all over the place, and raising his ERA from 3.72 to 4.55 in the process.
On Saturday night, the Dodgers found themselves up 4-0 heading into the bottom of the eighth. Don Mattingly rightfully didn't put Wilson back in there, but Paul Maholm gave up a leadoff triple to Cameron Maybin, and a two-out walk to Seth Smith. League came in and immediately let both runs score on two singles. Thankfully Jansen was much better in closing it out the next inning.
Right now, the bullpen is clearly sticking out as the weak link. The offense looks better with guys like Gordon, Hanley, and Matt Kemp swinging the bats better. The defense has settled in, save for Hanley's error during Clayton Kershaw's (almost) perfect game. The starting rotation has been superb all along.
Then there's the bullpen, which still can't seem to figure things out. Ideally, Wilson should've been one of the top setup men in baseball, but that certainly hasn't been the case. His ERA has actually gone way down to 5.33, but an enormous 1.89 WHIP shows that way too many men reach base against him. He looks like he's ready to implode at any point again.
The guys behind him have been a mixed bag as well. The best has been Howell with a 1.89 ERA and 16 holds. League had a good stretch to lower his ERA to 2.21, but still doesn't look comfortable in tight situations late in games. Chris Perez has been awful with a 5.61 ERA, and doesn't deserve any big innings at all.
Jamey Wright has been good with a 2.43 ERA, although his role is hard to figure out since he was supposed to be a long reliever. Does Donny strictly keep him for that role, or use him as a setup man occasionally? It's a tough call. The other long reliever, Maholm, looks lost with a 5.04 ERA. I wonder if he'll be sent packing.
Two guys relied upon for most of last year were Chris Withrow and Paco Rodriguez. Well, Withrow is done for the year with Tommy John surgery, and Paco is in Triple-A.
Jansen is going through some tough times for the first time in his career. He used to just show up, blow everyone away, then leave. Now, it looks as if hitters are more comfortable against him, and know what to expect. Supposedly there was a mechanical flaw that was being worked on after Friday's meltdown, so maybe that will work. I still think he needs to mix his pitches up more as I've said for awhile now. Mariano Rivera he is not, so throwing the same cutter over and over won't work all the time. It's time to accept some change.
I definitely expect Ned Colletti to be active over the next month-and-a-half in acquiring relief help. I can't imagine they can continue to watch games like these last two nights where the offense and starting pitching gets a lead, and they have to scratch and claw to hold on. That's pretty frustrating.
For in-house replacements, there's guys down at Triple-A like Paco, Jose Dominguez, and Pedro Baez who could get another shot in LA. Don't forget about those names.
The bottom line is that the Dodgers need to try something new with the 'pen. Most guys haven't pulled their weight, so some fresh arms will only do them good. We all know Colletti isn't afraid to pull the trigger on trades and roster moves, so keep an eye out for what happens. It should be interesting.
The Dodgers have been better in June with an 11-8 record, but one issue remains that could hold them back: the bullpen has got to get better.
The last two games in San Diego are the perfect example. Friday night was just brutal to watch. Dan Haren was pretty good, giving the Dodgers 5 2/3 innings for three runs. J.P. Howell and Brandon League both got a couple of outs to get into the eighth up 5-3.
Before the season, if you were to be told that the Dodgers have a two-run lead heading into the eighth, you would've been happy since Brian Wilson and Jansen were coming in. But reality has been much different than on paper, and both have underachieved.
Wilson was very fortunate to escape the eighth unharmed, as Scott Van Slyke, subbing for an injured Yasiel Puig, made a great running catch in right to prevent a run from being scored.
Then Jansen blew the save in the ninth, getting knocked all over the place, and raising his ERA from 3.72 to 4.55 in the process.
On Saturday night, the Dodgers found themselves up 4-0 heading into the bottom of the eighth. Don Mattingly rightfully didn't put Wilson back in there, but Paul Maholm gave up a leadoff triple to Cameron Maybin, and a two-out walk to Seth Smith. League came in and immediately let both runs score on two singles. Thankfully Jansen was much better in closing it out the next inning.
Right now, the bullpen is clearly sticking out as the weak link. The offense looks better with guys like Gordon, Hanley, and Matt Kemp swinging the bats better. The defense has settled in, save for Hanley's error during Clayton Kershaw's (almost) perfect game. The starting rotation has been superb all along.
Then there's the bullpen, which still can't seem to figure things out. Ideally, Wilson should've been one of the top setup men in baseball, but that certainly hasn't been the case. His ERA has actually gone way down to 5.33, but an enormous 1.89 WHIP shows that way too many men reach base against him. He looks like he's ready to implode at any point again.
The guys behind him have been a mixed bag as well. The best has been Howell with a 1.89 ERA and 16 holds. League had a good stretch to lower his ERA to 2.21, but still doesn't look comfortable in tight situations late in games. Chris Perez has been awful with a 5.61 ERA, and doesn't deserve any big innings at all.
Jamey Wright has been good with a 2.43 ERA, although his role is hard to figure out since he was supposed to be a long reliever. Does Donny strictly keep him for that role, or use him as a setup man occasionally? It's a tough call. The other long reliever, Maholm, looks lost with a 5.04 ERA. I wonder if he'll be sent packing.
Two guys relied upon for most of last year were Chris Withrow and Paco Rodriguez. Well, Withrow is done for the year with Tommy John surgery, and Paco is in Triple-A.
Jansen is going through some tough times for the first time in his career. He used to just show up, blow everyone away, then leave. Now, it looks as if hitters are more comfortable against him, and know what to expect. Supposedly there was a mechanical flaw that was being worked on after Friday's meltdown, so maybe that will work. I still think he needs to mix his pitches up more as I've said for awhile now. Mariano Rivera he is not, so throwing the same cutter over and over won't work all the time. It's time to accept some change.
I definitely expect Ned Colletti to be active over the next month-and-a-half in acquiring relief help. I can't imagine they can continue to watch games like these last two nights where the offense and starting pitching gets a lead, and they have to scratch and claw to hold on. That's pretty frustrating.
For in-house replacements, there's guys down at Triple-A like Paco, Jose Dominguez, and Pedro Baez who could get another shot in LA. Don't forget about those names.
The bottom line is that the Dodgers need to try something new with the 'pen. Most guys haven't pulled their weight, so some fresh arms will only do them good. We all know Colletti isn't afraid to pull the trigger on trades and roster moves, so keep an eye out for what happens. It should be interesting.
Sunday, May 25, 2014
A look at possible All-Star candidates
The All-Star Game is less than two months away on July 14 in Minnesota. Let's take a look at possible candidates that could be representing the Dodgers. I'll break it down by Definitely and Possibly.
Definitely:
Yasiel Puig, OF. He's second in the NL in the average (.349), slugging % (.623), OPS (1.061), and RBIs (38). Toss in 12 doubles, 10 homers, and 5 steals, and you see just what kind of an impact he has at the plate. Oh ya, he can throw, too. He should easily be voted in as a starting outfielder.
Dee Gordon, 2B. Who would've thought this before the season? Not me, but I'm happy to say that he absolutely deserves to go. He's leading the league in stolen bases with 30, 12 ahead of the guy who got all the hype coming into the season, Billy Hamilton. He's also 10th in runs, but that's mostly because the guys behind him haven't hit well. I'm not saying he should start over Chase Utley, but he should be picked over Daniel Murphy.
Zack Greinke, SP. National League pitching is so deep, his 2.01 ERA is actually fifth best. But, he does lead with seven wins, and is seventh with 65 K's. He clearly took over as the team's ace when Clayton Kershaw was shelved for 1 1/2 months. If he keeps doing what he's doing, he's a lock.
Possibly:
Josh Beckett, SP. In case you didn't hear, he threw a no-hitter against the Phillies on Sunday. Right now he is 10th in the NL in ERA (2.43) and 9th in WHIP (1.02). What a turnaround he's had after nearly ending his career a year ago with a nerve issue. The only reason I'm saying this isn't a definite is because the NL is so deep in pitching, as I said before. But, let's also remember how many All-Stars end up being picked thanks to the off days around the time of the game. I think he'll get in.
Clayton Kershaw, SP. Normally this would be a no-brainer, but again, keep in mind he missed a big chunk of time. He's only made five starts, and did have that clunker against the Diamondbacks recently. Take that away, and he absolutely is the stud pitcher we're used to. A handful of good starts should get him that extra push to get in.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B. The good news is that he leads all NL first basemen with 10 homers and 36 RBIs. The bad news is that a horrible May in which he's hitting .209 has really caused his production to level off. At the end of April he was hitting .317, and now it's .277. If he keeps the power numbers up, he should get some love. But, I get the feeling it won't be enough.
Kenley Jansen, RP. A 4.15 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are way too high, but his 14 saves are tied for fourth. What's working for him is that he's only three away from first, so if the Dodgers get hot and he can close out a bunch of games coming up, then he should get a strong push to get in.
Juan Uribe, 3B. It's probably a stretch, especially since he's currently on the 15-day DL with a bad hamstring. The only reason I'll throw him out as a possibility is because the third basemen in the NL are average at best. David Wright is leading with a .311 average, but only three homers. Nolan Arenado is very talented, but just broke a finger and could be out awhile. Todd Frazier has good power numbers with 9 homers and 27 RBIs. If Uribe can come back healthy, hit some more, and show his usual good glovework, then he's someone to keep an eye on.
Definitely:
Yasiel Puig, OF. He's second in the NL in the average (.349), slugging % (.623), OPS (1.061), and RBIs (38). Toss in 12 doubles, 10 homers, and 5 steals, and you see just what kind of an impact he has at the plate. Oh ya, he can throw, too. He should easily be voted in as a starting outfielder.
Dee Gordon, 2B. Who would've thought this before the season? Not me, but I'm happy to say that he absolutely deserves to go. He's leading the league in stolen bases with 30, 12 ahead of the guy who got all the hype coming into the season, Billy Hamilton. He's also 10th in runs, but that's mostly because the guys behind him haven't hit well. I'm not saying he should start over Chase Utley, but he should be picked over Daniel Murphy.
Zack Greinke, SP. National League pitching is so deep, his 2.01 ERA is actually fifth best. But, he does lead with seven wins, and is seventh with 65 K's. He clearly took over as the team's ace when Clayton Kershaw was shelved for 1 1/2 months. If he keeps doing what he's doing, he's a lock.
Possibly:
Josh Beckett, SP. In case you didn't hear, he threw a no-hitter against the Phillies on Sunday. Right now he is 10th in the NL in ERA (2.43) and 9th in WHIP (1.02). What a turnaround he's had after nearly ending his career a year ago with a nerve issue. The only reason I'm saying this isn't a definite is because the NL is so deep in pitching, as I said before. But, let's also remember how many All-Stars end up being picked thanks to the off days around the time of the game. I think he'll get in.
Clayton Kershaw, SP. Normally this would be a no-brainer, but again, keep in mind he missed a big chunk of time. He's only made five starts, and did have that clunker against the Diamondbacks recently. Take that away, and he absolutely is the stud pitcher we're used to. A handful of good starts should get him that extra push to get in.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B. The good news is that he leads all NL first basemen with 10 homers and 36 RBIs. The bad news is that a horrible May in which he's hitting .209 has really caused his production to level off. At the end of April he was hitting .317, and now it's .277. If he keeps the power numbers up, he should get some love. But, I get the feeling it won't be enough.
Kenley Jansen, RP. A 4.15 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are way too high, but his 14 saves are tied for fourth. What's working for him is that he's only three away from first, so if the Dodgers get hot and he can close out a bunch of games coming up, then he should get a strong push to get in.
Juan Uribe, 3B. It's probably a stretch, especially since he's currently on the 15-day DL with a bad hamstring. The only reason I'll throw him out as a possibility is because the third basemen in the NL are average at best. David Wright is leading with a .311 average, but only three homers. Nolan Arenado is very talented, but just broke a finger and could be out awhile. Todd Frazier has good power numbers with 9 homers and 27 RBIs. If Uribe can come back healthy, hit some more, and show his usual good glovework, then he's someone to keep an eye on.
Sunday, May 11, 2014
More extra inning Dodger blues
If you thought Hanley Ramirez's two-out, two-run homer off of Sergio Romo would propel the Dodgers to a series split, well... you thought wrong.
Once again, when the Dodgers found themselves in extra innings, the bullpen fell apart, and the offense couldn't pick them up in a 7-4 loss to the Giants. The Giants are in first place for a reason, as they made the big plays more often than the Dodgers, and that's all there is to that.
It wasn't too long ago I wrote about the Dodgers' struggles when there's free baseball after nine innings. The biggest culprit was the team's 5.40 ERA in extras. Well, that number shot up even more today, as Kenley Jansen was charged for three runs while only getting one out in the 10th. J.P. Howell did a good job in getting the final two outs, but also uncorked a wild pitch that led to the third run. It was just ugly all around.
Don Mattingly followed the book of relief pitching by inserting his closer in the 10th. Obviously he wasn't in a save situation anymore, so Donny was trying to put up a zero and let his team maintain their momentum from Hanley's homer to win it in 10. It didn't work. In fact, it blew up in everyone's face.
I can certainly understand Donny wanting Jansen in that spot, but the numbers suggest it's not at all the right call. Coming into this game, his ERA in extras was 10.80. If that wasn't bad enough, it shot all the way up to an astronomical 22.50 (or five runs in two innings) with a 5.50 WHIP. That's just hard to believe. But believe it or not, that's the reality.
The other reality is that right now, the Dodgers can't find ways to win, and it shows. So, the Giants came to Dodger Stadium and took three of four, increasing their lead over the Dodgers to 4 1/2 games.
Other thoughts from the game:
* I can't wait for Juan Uribe to come back. I've seen all I need to see of Justin Turner and Chone Figgins at third. Turner started today and is hitting .180. Figgins pinch-hit and, shock of shocks, struck out to lower his average to .125. I hope Ned Colletti gets rid of them. Good riddance!
* Take away the first and last innings that Clayton Kershaw pitched, and he was fantastic. The problem was that on a team that can barely score, any runs given up is magnified even more. Pablo Sandoval's RBI double in the first made it 1-0, and after grabbing a 2-1 lead, a two-run shot by Brandon Hicks made it 3-2. All in all, though, it was a good start with seven innings, three runs, no walks, and nine strikeouts.
* Even more surprising was a note brought up by Vin Scully during the game. The home run by Hicks was off a Kershaw curveball, which makes that only the second time in Kershaw's CAREER that someone hit that pitch out of the park (Matt Holliday in the 2009 NLCS). That's amazing.
* Every starter had a hit for the Dodgers, including Kershaw. The problem? An anemic 3-for-14 with RISP. Turner was the worst one, as all four of his AB's were in this situation, and he only had one hit. That's pathetic.
* On a positive note, Matt Kemp looked really good in center. I counted two really good catches on a dive and over his shoulder, plus another sharp one on the run. That's a great sign. Of course, going 1-for-5 really is not.
* Yasiel Puig hit a home run and nobody got mad at him. That might be a first.
The Dodgers and their 7-12 record at home welcome the Miami Marlins for three starting on Monday. Unfortunately, that also means the magnificent Jose Fernandez on Wednesday, while Kershaw and Zack Greinke do not go. They will this weekend in Arizona, so maybe that's for the better.
Once again, when the Dodgers found themselves in extra innings, the bullpen fell apart, and the offense couldn't pick them up in a 7-4 loss to the Giants. The Giants are in first place for a reason, as they made the big plays more often than the Dodgers, and that's all there is to that.
It wasn't too long ago I wrote about the Dodgers' struggles when there's free baseball after nine innings. The biggest culprit was the team's 5.40 ERA in extras. Well, that number shot up even more today, as Kenley Jansen was charged for three runs while only getting one out in the 10th. J.P. Howell did a good job in getting the final two outs, but also uncorked a wild pitch that led to the third run. It was just ugly all around.
Don Mattingly followed the book of relief pitching by inserting his closer in the 10th. Obviously he wasn't in a save situation anymore, so Donny was trying to put up a zero and let his team maintain their momentum from Hanley's homer to win it in 10. It didn't work. In fact, it blew up in everyone's face.
I can certainly understand Donny wanting Jansen in that spot, but the numbers suggest it's not at all the right call. Coming into this game, his ERA in extras was 10.80. If that wasn't bad enough, it shot all the way up to an astronomical 22.50 (or five runs in two innings) with a 5.50 WHIP. That's just hard to believe. But believe it or not, that's the reality.
The other reality is that right now, the Dodgers can't find ways to win, and it shows. So, the Giants came to Dodger Stadium and took three of four, increasing their lead over the Dodgers to 4 1/2 games.
Other thoughts from the game:
* I can't wait for Juan Uribe to come back. I've seen all I need to see of Justin Turner and Chone Figgins at third. Turner started today and is hitting .180. Figgins pinch-hit and, shock of shocks, struck out to lower his average to .125. I hope Ned Colletti gets rid of them. Good riddance!
* Take away the first and last innings that Clayton Kershaw pitched, and he was fantastic. The problem was that on a team that can barely score, any runs given up is magnified even more. Pablo Sandoval's RBI double in the first made it 1-0, and after grabbing a 2-1 lead, a two-run shot by Brandon Hicks made it 3-2. All in all, though, it was a good start with seven innings, three runs, no walks, and nine strikeouts.
* Even more surprising was a note brought up by Vin Scully during the game. The home run by Hicks was off a Kershaw curveball, which makes that only the second time in Kershaw's CAREER that someone hit that pitch out of the park (Matt Holliday in the 2009 NLCS). That's amazing.
* Every starter had a hit for the Dodgers, including Kershaw. The problem? An anemic 3-for-14 with RISP. Turner was the worst one, as all four of his AB's were in this situation, and he only had one hit. That's pathetic.
* On a positive note, Matt Kemp looked really good in center. I counted two really good catches on a dive and over his shoulder, plus another sharp one on the run. That's a great sign. Of course, going 1-for-5 really is not.
* Yasiel Puig hit a home run and nobody got mad at him. That might be a first.
The Dodgers and their 7-12 record at home welcome the Miami Marlins for three starting on Monday. Unfortunately, that also means the magnificent Jose Fernandez on Wednesday, while Kershaw and Zack Greinke do not go. They will this weekend in Arizona, so maybe that's for the better.
Friday, May 9, 2014
Extra innings have been unkind, but why?
After another extra-innings loss on Thursday night to the Giants 3-1, the Dodgers dropped to 3-6 in such games. It's actually pretty amazing that of the 36 games played so far, nine have gone into "overtime."
So the simple question is, Why?
Here's why: the bullpen ERA is 3.92 overall, but shoots up to 5.40 after the ninth inning. The breakdown goes something like this:
Brandon League - 4 1/3 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, .333 AVG
Jamey Wright - 6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .286 AVG
Chris Perez - 2 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .333 AVG
J.P. Howell - 2 2/3 IP, 10.12 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .231 AVG
Kenley Jansen - 1 2/3 IP, 10.80 ERA, 3.60 WHIP, .500 AVG
Simply put, those numbers range from a little taste of good to a whole lot of bad.
Even more surprising is the order in which this list appears. I would think if you had these five guys as your choices before the season started, you would've had it flipped completely, as there's no way anyone would think League would have a better ERA than Jansen when the pressure is on. But, that's certainly been the reality.
Look, the Dodgers just have to play better on both sides of the field if they want to breakout and stop treading water. Better pitching in extra innings is just one part of it. It's not like the offense lights it up either, as their .266 AVG is about in the middle of the pack. That's not that great, but it's better than the poor pitching at least.
Then again, the Dodgers just need to go on a 42-8 run again. That would solve plenty of problems.
So the simple question is, Why?
Here's why: the bullpen ERA is 3.92 overall, but shoots up to 5.40 after the ninth inning. The breakdown goes something like this:
Brandon League - 4 1/3 IP, 2.08 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, .333 AVG
Jamey Wright - 6 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .286 AVG
Chris Perez - 2 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .333 AVG
J.P. Howell - 2 2/3 IP, 10.12 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .231 AVG
Kenley Jansen - 1 2/3 IP, 10.80 ERA, 3.60 WHIP, .500 AVG
Simply put, those numbers range from a little taste of good to a whole lot of bad.
Even more surprising is the order in which this list appears. I would think if you had these five guys as your choices before the season started, you would've had it flipped completely, as there's no way anyone would think League would have a better ERA than Jansen when the pressure is on. But, that's certainly been the reality.
Look, the Dodgers just have to play better on both sides of the field if they want to breakout and stop treading water. Better pitching in extra innings is just one part of it. It's not like the offense lights it up either, as their .266 AVG is about in the middle of the pack. That's not that great, but it's better than the poor pitching at least.
Then again, the Dodgers just need to go on a 42-8 run again. That would solve plenty of problems.
Friday, April 25, 2014
The "dominant" Dodgers' bullpen... is pretty average
Oh boy. One night after Brian Wilson completely melted down against the Phillies in a 7-3 loss, getting burned for four runs and only one out in the ninth, it's time we take a look at how exactly the Dodgers' bullpen is doing.
Let's break it down, starting with team stats, and then looking at some individual arms in the 'pen.
Team Stats:
2-7, 83 1/3 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8 saves, 4 blown saves, 40 BB, 92 K, .235 BAA
NL Averages:
4-3, 69 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6 saves, 3 blown saves, 28 BB, 68 K, .236 BAA
Analysis:
Like the headline says, all things considered, the bullpen is pretty average. Not terrible by any means, but not exactly the shutdown group of arms Ned Colletti thought he was getting. The number that jumped out to me the most is the innings pitched, as only Arizona at 92 has more. No surprise, both teams lost their aces (Patrick Corbin for the year, Clayton Kershaw for over a month). The amount of walks is third in baseball. Even with more innings, that's still way too high. Blowing one out of every three saves isn't great, either.
Individual Stats:
Chris Withrow - 0-0, 11 1/3 IP, 0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 7 BB, 16 K
J.P. Howell - 1-2, 10 IP, 0.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6 BB, 11 K
Chris Perez - 0-1, 10 2/3 IP, 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 3 BB, 7 K
Jamey Wright - 1-1, 11 1/3 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 8 BB, 10 K
Paco Rodriguez - 0-0, 5 2/3 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 2 BB, 5 K
Kenley Jansen - 0-1, 13 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5 BB, 24 K, 8 SV
Brandon League - 0-1, 10 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3 BB, 7 K
Paul Maholm - 0-0, 2 1/3 IP, 3.86 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 0 BB, 1 K
Jose Dominguez - 0-0, 5 IP, 10.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2 BB, 7 K
Brian Wilson - 0-2, 4 IP, 15.75 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 4 K
Analysis:
Who would've thought Wilson's name would be dead last in ERA? He could not have possibly been any better last season, with only one run allowed in 13 2/3 innings. Now he's just getting hit all over the place, and his location has been abysmal. He's already spent time on the DL this season, so don't be surprised if it's right back to that soon.
Don Mattingly has recently stated that he wants to give Jansen more time off. That's a smart thing since he leads the bullpen in innings. But, Thursday night it was Wilson in the closer's role of keeping the scored tied in the ninth, and he flunked with flying colors. This is why Mattingly rides his horse so much. Even with an ERA higher than normal, with nearly twice the amount of strikeouts as innings, it's easy to see why he's used to much.
The top three names on that list should be getting more cracks in the late innings as Wilson works through whatever mechanical or physical issues he has. Withrow has emerged as a legit power arm. Howell continues to get batters out on both sides of the plate. Perez looks more like the All-Star closer he was with the Indians, and not the guy who fell apart last year.
Final Verdict:
All in all, the bullpen isn't quite as bad as people may think. It's completely understandable to be disappointed that a group of relievers making around $35 million this season are in the middle of the pack. That type of money is dished out to ensure zeros late in games, not blown saves and big hits.
Jansen is still the clear-cut closer, as he has four straight shutout appearances of late, including seven strikeouts and no walks. Mixing up his pitches a little more has really paid off. Even if he was still throwing cutter after cutter, he's the best closer they have, especially with Wilson being so bad.
Instead of Wilson as the primary setup guy, I'd move Perez up to that spot, with Withrow and Howell right behind. Perez has only given up runs in one of his 12 appearances. If there's a big lefty to get out, then of course send in Howell.
I'd also like to see is the return of Rodriguez from Triple-A. Right now the Dodgers have only one left-handed reliever in Howell, which is way too few. At least give Mattingly one more option from the left side.
Once Kershaw comes back, then Maholm can be moved to the long relief role, as Wright doesn't look like he's really in that role right now. Unless Maholm is sent packing, which wouldn't be a bad thing, quite honestly. I just think that if anything, he can be brought in for multiple innings if necessary.
Finally, I would address League, but if the Dodgers haven't canned him yet, I doubt they ever will. He's been better than Wilson, at least.
Let's break it down, starting with team stats, and then looking at some individual arms in the 'pen.
Team Stats:
2-7, 83 1/3 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8 saves, 4 blown saves, 40 BB, 92 K, .235 BAA
NL Averages:
4-3, 69 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6 saves, 3 blown saves, 28 BB, 68 K, .236 BAA
Analysis:
Like the headline says, all things considered, the bullpen is pretty average. Not terrible by any means, but not exactly the shutdown group of arms Ned Colletti thought he was getting. The number that jumped out to me the most is the innings pitched, as only Arizona at 92 has more. No surprise, both teams lost their aces (Patrick Corbin for the year, Clayton Kershaw for over a month). The amount of walks is third in baseball. Even with more innings, that's still way too high. Blowing one out of every three saves isn't great, either.
Individual Stats:
Chris Withrow - 0-0, 11 1/3 IP, 0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 7 BB, 16 K
J.P. Howell - 1-2, 10 IP, 0.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6 BB, 11 K
Chris Perez - 0-1, 10 2/3 IP, 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 3 BB, 7 K
Jamey Wright - 1-1, 11 1/3 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 8 BB, 10 K
Paco Rodriguez - 0-0, 5 2/3 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 2 BB, 5 K
Kenley Jansen - 0-1, 13 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 5 BB, 24 K, 8 SV
Brandon League - 0-1, 10 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3 BB, 7 K
Paul Maholm - 0-0, 2 1/3 IP, 3.86 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 0 BB, 1 K
Jose Dominguez - 0-0, 5 IP, 10.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2 BB, 7 K
Brian Wilson - 0-2, 4 IP, 15.75 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 4 K
Analysis:
Who would've thought Wilson's name would be dead last in ERA? He could not have possibly been any better last season, with only one run allowed in 13 2/3 innings. Now he's just getting hit all over the place, and his location has been abysmal. He's already spent time on the DL this season, so don't be surprised if it's right back to that soon.
Don Mattingly has recently stated that he wants to give Jansen more time off. That's a smart thing since he leads the bullpen in innings. But, Thursday night it was Wilson in the closer's role of keeping the scored tied in the ninth, and he flunked with flying colors. This is why Mattingly rides his horse so much. Even with an ERA higher than normal, with nearly twice the amount of strikeouts as innings, it's easy to see why he's used to much.
The top three names on that list should be getting more cracks in the late innings as Wilson works through whatever mechanical or physical issues he has. Withrow has emerged as a legit power arm. Howell continues to get batters out on both sides of the plate. Perez looks more like the All-Star closer he was with the Indians, and not the guy who fell apart last year.
Final Verdict:
All in all, the bullpen isn't quite as bad as people may think. It's completely understandable to be disappointed that a group of relievers making around $35 million this season are in the middle of the pack. That type of money is dished out to ensure zeros late in games, not blown saves and big hits.
Jansen is still the clear-cut closer, as he has four straight shutout appearances of late, including seven strikeouts and no walks. Mixing up his pitches a little more has really paid off. Even if he was still throwing cutter after cutter, he's the best closer they have, especially with Wilson being so bad.
Instead of Wilson as the primary setup guy, I'd move Perez up to that spot, with Withrow and Howell right behind. Perez has only given up runs in one of his 12 appearances. If there's a big lefty to get out, then of course send in Howell.
I'd also like to see is the return of Rodriguez from Triple-A. Right now the Dodgers have only one left-handed reliever in Howell, which is way too few. At least give Mattingly one more option from the left side.
Once Kershaw comes back, then Maholm can be moved to the long relief role, as Wright doesn't look like he's really in that role right now. Unless Maholm is sent packing, which wouldn't be a bad thing, quite honestly. I just think that if anything, he can be brought in for multiple innings if necessary.
Finally, I would address League, but if the Dodgers haven't canned him yet, I doubt they ever will. He's been better than Wilson, at least.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Jansen says he's feeling good, so what's the problem?
Good update over at ESPN LA from Mark Saxon about Kenley Jansen and his rejuvenated fastball. Last season it was in the 92-95 mph range, and now it's shot up to 95-100. The reason could be a healthier offseason after needing plenty of rest the previous year because of his abnormal heartbeat scare.
Of course, that begs the question about why Jansen has blown two of the last four save opportunities, in addition to taking a loss to the Tigers last week trying to keep the score tied. One theory is that his increased velocity has resulted in a straighter cutter, which isn't exactly a good thing.
That could be true, but I think there's something else: opposing hitters know the cutter is coming, have seen it before, and are more prepared to hit it, no matter how nasty it may be.
It's tough to get on Jansen too much because he's been practically unhittable since 2010. But right now, the 39 batters he's faced have hit .343 off of him. Want to know the highest average he's surrendered in his career? Try .177 last year, the same season he collected 28 saves, a 1.88 ERA, and struck out 111.
I've said for a couple years now that as good as Jansen's hard stuff is, I do get concerned that he goes to the well way too often. Watching the Giants hit against him on Tuesday night (his second blown save), I couldn't help but think of that again. While the hits against him were a bit lucky, the bottom line is that I didn't get a sense that the guys from the Bay Area were intimidated by him, as many hitters have been in the past. It seemed like they were prepared for what was coming.
There are some interesting numbers over at Fangraphs.com that back up what Saxon was saying. All of his pitches (fastball, cutter, slider) are being thrown about 2-3 mph harder than in the past. I'm definitely not a pitching expert (I coach junior high softball, and even that confuses me), but maybe harder doesn't always equal better.
I don't think it's too late to start incorporating some softer stuff. The only other pitch he's been tracked at is a slider at 5% of the time. He hasn't been tracked throwing a changeup since 2011, and even that was barely at 2%. He's coming at you hard and often.
When thinking about other great closers in Dodgers' history, I obviously think of Eric Gagne. To compliment his 92 mph fastball, what other pitch did he rely on? A 70 mph changeup that buckled knees every game. I know that's not Jansen's thing, but it goes to show how having two reliable pitches at different speeds make you more deadly on the mound.
Maybe Jansen is about to reel off 20 straight saves and we'll forget about his April troubles. Or maybe opposing hitters will keep having success against him. I just hope he's more open to mixing in some softer stuff when he's on the mound. It can only help.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Time to worry about Jansen?
What a surprise, a closer with some question marks.
Already this season we've seen Jim Johnson and Jim Henderson get demoted; Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Bobby Parnell and Casey Jansen get hurt; and Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, and Glen Perkins get pounded.
And then there's the Dodgers and Kenley Jansen, who all of a sudden looks very mortal. And even this early in the season, you can't help but wonder if something's wrong.
That's exactly what was asked to Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com, as he addressed this question in his latest mailbag. What Gurnick pointed out is that nothing appears to be wrong, as he's actually throwing 3-5 MPH harder than last year. Maybe, just maybe, throwing harder isn't the best thing for a cutter, as it becomes more of a straight fastball.
Or, just maybe, the rush to get to Australia has victimized another stud pitcher, just as it has Clayton Kershaw and Brian Wilson.
The Dodgers certainly hope that's not the case, as the last thing they need is their end-of-game combo of Wilson and Jansen to be on the shelf with some sort of arm injuries. To Jansen's credit, he's been so good as the closer, any sort of hiccup raises eyebrows.
You know the Dodgers are going to give him plenty of more chances to close, so there's no use in getting all bent out of shape over a couple of bad nights against a really good team in the Tigers. Even though his numbers aren't pretty (4.76 ERA, 2.29 WHIP), he still has 10 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings.
But, the one thing that does concern me is something I've been saying for a couple of years now: I just don't think he's going to survive throwing only a cutter. It's a nasty pitch, and we all know that Mariano Rivera made a living off of it for years. But Jansen isn't Rivera, and quite frankly, no one is. I really think he'd be much better off mixing in other pitchers.
I know that's tough for a closer to do, as they want to just blow people away. That's something Jansen is certainly capable of doing, I'm just not so sure he can do it for long stretches, as Major League hitters are too good and too smart, so they're able to adjust to anything. Unless you're facing Rivera, of course.
Maybe a couple of saves this weekend in Arizona will do him some good. I also think tweaking his approach a bit will also do him some good, as the cutter isn't the put away pitch it normally is right now. If he's stubborn and keeps going to the well too often with the same pitch, then my fear is seeing his name added to the struggling list above.
That's something none of us need to see.
Already this season we've seen Jim Johnson and Jim Henderson get demoted; Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Bobby Parnell and Casey Jansen get hurt; and Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, and Glen Perkins get pounded.
And then there's the Dodgers and Kenley Jansen, who all of a sudden looks very mortal. And even this early in the season, you can't help but wonder if something's wrong.
That's exactly what was asked to Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com, as he addressed this question in his latest mailbag. What Gurnick pointed out is that nothing appears to be wrong, as he's actually throwing 3-5 MPH harder than last year. Maybe, just maybe, throwing harder isn't the best thing for a cutter, as it becomes more of a straight fastball.
Or, just maybe, the rush to get to Australia has victimized another stud pitcher, just as it has Clayton Kershaw and Brian Wilson.
The Dodgers certainly hope that's not the case, as the last thing they need is their end-of-game combo of Wilson and Jansen to be on the shelf with some sort of arm injuries. To Jansen's credit, he's been so good as the closer, any sort of hiccup raises eyebrows.
You know the Dodgers are going to give him plenty of more chances to close, so there's no use in getting all bent out of shape over a couple of bad nights against a really good team in the Tigers. Even though his numbers aren't pretty (4.76 ERA, 2.29 WHIP), he still has 10 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings.
But, the one thing that does concern me is something I've been saying for a couple of years now: I just don't think he's going to survive throwing only a cutter. It's a nasty pitch, and we all know that Mariano Rivera made a living off of it for years. But Jansen isn't Rivera, and quite frankly, no one is. I really think he'd be much better off mixing in other pitchers.
I know that's tough for a closer to do, as they want to just blow people away. That's something Jansen is certainly capable of doing, I'm just not so sure he can do it for long stretches, as Major League hitters are too good and too smart, so they're able to adjust to anything. Unless you're facing Rivera, of course.
Maybe a couple of saves this weekend in Arizona will do him some good. I also think tweaking his approach a bit will also do him some good, as the cutter isn't the put away pitch it normally is right now. If he's stubborn and keeps going to the well too often with the same pitch, then my fear is seeing his name added to the struggling list above.
That's something none of us need to see.
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Taking a look at the loaded Dodgers' bullpen
If you're a Dodger fan looking for quality arms, then Christmas was very kind. Ned Colletti announced the signings of Chris Perez, Jamey Wright, and J.P. Howell on Tuesday, giving the Dodgers one of the deepest, and hopefully best, bullpens in all of baseball.
To go along with the signings of those three is the return of Brian Wilson, who was re-signed about three weeks ago. With that in mind, let's take a look at the arms that could form the 'pen in April, with their 2013 stats in parenthesis.
Shoo-Ins:
Closer - RHP Kenley Jansen (28 saves, 16 holds, 1.88 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)
Enters the season as the clear-cut closer, and there's little reason to believe that will change. Then again, in a crazy spot like closer, anything can happen. Didn't Brandon League enter 2013 as the closer? And wasn't Jonathan Broxton once a "shutdown" closer? You get the point. Still, with a great fastball and cutter, it's hard to believe Jansen will flop.
Setup - RHP Brian Wilson (3 holds, 0.66 ERA, 0.88 WHIP)
In a great move by Colletti, was brought back as both the primary eighth inning guy, and a fallback option in case Jansen has some troubles. Was everything the Dodgers could have hoped for and more in 2013, and with more time ticking away since his Tommy John surgery in 2012, should have even stronger stuff for 2014.
LHP J.P. Howell (11 holds, 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)
Got the multi-year deal he was searching for, and with a .164 average against left-handed hitters, will find himself in plenty of big situations once again. Two straight seasons of great numbers with the Rays and Dodgers shows he's up for the challenge.
LHP Paco Rodriguez (20 holds, 2 saves, 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)
About the only thing that went wrong for him in an incredible rookie year was the nosedive he took at the end of last year, as he was actually left off of the NLCS roster. But with a fresh arm and deceptive delivery, showed what he could do for many months. The hope, of course, is that his arm strength can last during the rigors of a full season.
RHP Chris Perez (25 saves, 1 hold, 4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP with Indians)
He's a two-time All-Star, so he certainly knows how to get the big outs. Last season was a disaster in every way for him, whether he was getting hurt, blowing saves, or getting busted by the law. The best thing for him could very well be pitching in friendly Dodger Stadium against weaker offenses and away from the closing spotlight. I like the addition, as I'll take a chance on him over a bum like Ronald Belisario any day of the week.
Long Relief - RHP Jamey Wright (6 holds, 3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP with Rays)
As Colletti recently admitted, he wished he was more aggressive in re-signing him after the 2012 season. A year of long relief success later, that's exactly what he did in bringing him back to LA for the same role. There really aren't a whole heck of a lot of pitchers who actually embrace the role of getting ready quickly to pitch multiple innings at a moment's notice, and he's one of the best, so it's a good move.
Battling it Out:
RHP - Chris Withrow (4 holds, 1 save, 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)
Like Rodriguez, is another young arm who got plenty of big outs. I bet people will look at those numbers above and be pleasantly surprised. I can see him teaming with Perez and Rodriguez in the middle innings to bridge the gap to Wilson and Jansen. He's got the hard stuff to do it.
RHP Jose Dominguez (1 hold, 2.16 ERA, 1.68 WHIP)
A young man with electric stuff, as he can reach 100 MPH at any point. He's very fortunately to have such a low ERA, as opponents hit .314 off of him, albeit in a small sample size with 8 1/3 innings. Still, there's something about power arms out of the bullpen that is so intriguing, and if he can learn to pitch to corners and mix in some soft stuff, he can be a huge weapon.
RHP Brandon League (14 saves, 2 holds, 5.30 ERA, 1.55 WHIP)
Ahhh, good old League, the guy who won't go anywhere thanks to two years left on a three-year, $22.5 million contract. What a shame it would be if he beats out better arms like Withrow and Dominguez, but that's a definite possibility. Maybe Rick Honeycutt found something in his delivery that will improve him? I'm searching for something here, because it's hard to get even a little bit excited to see him pitch again.
Don't Forget About:
LHP Scott Elbert (Did not pitch in 2013)
Still recovering from Tommy John surgery, he will be out until around the All-Star break at best guess. Pitched mostly in 2011 and 2012, and with ERA's of 2.43 and 2.20, respectively, it's easy to see why a lefty with hard stuff like him sticks around. Suppose Rodriguez gets worn down again, then possibly Elbert steps in down the stretch. It might not be entirely realistic to count on him for any of 2014, but like it says above, don't forget about him.
Bottom Line:
By my count, that's nine guys duking it out for between 7-8 spots in the bullpen (taking out an injured Elbert). Plus, you have to remember that when fully healthy, the starting rotation sports six guys in Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren, Chad Billingsley, and Josh Beckett. You know those first three names won't be anywhere near the bullpen, so one of Haren, Billingsley, or Beckett may have to be do the Chris Capuano act of bouncing between starter and reliever.
With the way this team gets hurt, Don Mattingly might not need to make many tough decisions on who stays and who goes, much like the outfield situation from last season. But of the three names on the "Battling it Out" list, I'd say as of right now Withrow gets the nod, with League and then Dominguez. League is awful, but has that damn contract, so he can't be ignored. Dominguez has to show more consistency before getting a permanent stay in LA.
Colletti has stated that he's all but done with roster moves, so it would be a surprise to see another reliever signed. Then again, if the Dodgers bid and are successful in getting Masahiro Tanaka, then that throws a wrench into all of these plans, not that that's a bad thing if this kid is the real deal. We shall see.
To go along with the signings of those three is the return of Brian Wilson, who was re-signed about three weeks ago. With that in mind, let's take a look at the arms that could form the 'pen in April, with their 2013 stats in parenthesis.
Shoo-Ins:
Closer - RHP Kenley Jansen (28 saves, 16 holds, 1.88 ERA, 0.86 WHIP)
Enters the season as the clear-cut closer, and there's little reason to believe that will change. Then again, in a crazy spot like closer, anything can happen. Didn't Brandon League enter 2013 as the closer? And wasn't Jonathan Broxton once a "shutdown" closer? You get the point. Still, with a great fastball and cutter, it's hard to believe Jansen will flop.
Setup - RHP Brian Wilson (3 holds, 0.66 ERA, 0.88 WHIP)
In a great move by Colletti, was brought back as both the primary eighth inning guy, and a fallback option in case Jansen has some troubles. Was everything the Dodgers could have hoped for and more in 2013, and with more time ticking away since his Tommy John surgery in 2012, should have even stronger stuff for 2014.
LHP J.P. Howell (11 holds, 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP)
Got the multi-year deal he was searching for, and with a .164 average against left-handed hitters, will find himself in plenty of big situations once again. Two straight seasons of great numbers with the Rays and Dodgers shows he's up for the challenge.
LHP Paco Rodriguez (20 holds, 2 saves, 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)
About the only thing that went wrong for him in an incredible rookie year was the nosedive he took at the end of last year, as he was actually left off of the NLCS roster. But with a fresh arm and deceptive delivery, showed what he could do for many months. The hope, of course, is that his arm strength can last during the rigors of a full season.
RHP Chris Perez (25 saves, 1 hold, 4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP with Indians)
He's a two-time All-Star, so he certainly knows how to get the big outs. Last season was a disaster in every way for him, whether he was getting hurt, blowing saves, or getting busted by the law. The best thing for him could very well be pitching in friendly Dodger Stadium against weaker offenses and away from the closing spotlight. I like the addition, as I'll take a chance on him over a bum like Ronald Belisario any day of the week.
Long Relief - RHP Jamey Wright (6 holds, 3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP with Rays)
As Colletti recently admitted, he wished he was more aggressive in re-signing him after the 2012 season. A year of long relief success later, that's exactly what he did in bringing him back to LA for the same role. There really aren't a whole heck of a lot of pitchers who actually embrace the role of getting ready quickly to pitch multiple innings at a moment's notice, and he's one of the best, so it's a good move.
Battling it Out:
RHP - Chris Withrow (4 holds, 1 save, 2.60 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)
Like Rodriguez, is another young arm who got plenty of big outs. I bet people will look at those numbers above and be pleasantly surprised. I can see him teaming with Perez and Rodriguez in the middle innings to bridge the gap to Wilson and Jansen. He's got the hard stuff to do it.
RHP Jose Dominguez (1 hold, 2.16 ERA, 1.68 WHIP)
A young man with electric stuff, as he can reach 100 MPH at any point. He's very fortunately to have such a low ERA, as opponents hit .314 off of him, albeit in a small sample size with 8 1/3 innings. Still, there's something about power arms out of the bullpen that is so intriguing, and if he can learn to pitch to corners and mix in some soft stuff, he can be a huge weapon.
RHP Brandon League (14 saves, 2 holds, 5.30 ERA, 1.55 WHIP)
Ahhh, good old League, the guy who won't go anywhere thanks to two years left on a three-year, $22.5 million contract. What a shame it would be if he beats out better arms like Withrow and Dominguez, but that's a definite possibility. Maybe Rick Honeycutt found something in his delivery that will improve him? I'm searching for something here, because it's hard to get even a little bit excited to see him pitch again.
Don't Forget About:
LHP Scott Elbert (Did not pitch in 2013)
Still recovering from Tommy John surgery, he will be out until around the All-Star break at best guess. Pitched mostly in 2011 and 2012, and with ERA's of 2.43 and 2.20, respectively, it's easy to see why a lefty with hard stuff like him sticks around. Suppose Rodriguez gets worn down again, then possibly Elbert steps in down the stretch. It might not be entirely realistic to count on him for any of 2014, but like it says above, don't forget about him.
Bottom Line:
By my count, that's nine guys duking it out for between 7-8 spots in the bullpen (taking out an injured Elbert). Plus, you have to remember that when fully healthy, the starting rotation sports six guys in Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dan Haren, Chad Billingsley, and Josh Beckett. You know those first three names won't be anywhere near the bullpen, so one of Haren, Billingsley, or Beckett may have to be do the Chris Capuano act of bouncing between starter and reliever.
With the way this team gets hurt, Don Mattingly might not need to make many tough decisions on who stays and who goes, much like the outfield situation from last season. But of the three names on the "Battling it Out" list, I'd say as of right now Withrow gets the nod, with League and then Dominguez. League is awful, but has that damn contract, so he can't be ignored. Dominguez has to show more consistency before getting a permanent stay in LA.
Colletti has stated that he's all but done with roster moves, so it would be a surprise to see another reliever signed. Then again, if the Dodgers bid and are successful in getting Masahiro Tanaka, then that throws a wrench into all of these plans, not that that's a bad thing if this kid is the real deal. We shall see.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
Revisiting some postseason questions
Back on September 30, I took a look at five reasons the Dodgers could win the World Series, along with five reasons why they wouldn't (read my original report here).
Well... we obviously know they didn't, so let's take a look at each key point and break it down.
Reasons They Will
1. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke as the 1-2 punch. Everything was working out quite nicely for this... and then Game 6 of the NLCS hit. And that's when Kershaw had his worst start of the season with seven runs in four innings. Even with that clunker, he had a 3.13 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four October starts, striking out 28 in 23 innings.
Greinke was also solid, recording a 2.57 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in three starts. The only downside is that he twice surrendered a 2-0 lead to the Cardinals, and on the losing end against the Braves, though that was hardly his fault. He was signed to be the ace right behind Kershaw, and that's what he did.
All in all, these guys definitely provided the punch, but their offense did not give them the love they needed. They both went in the first couple of games in St. Louis, and both were loses because of virtually no run support. In other words, there wasn't a whole lot more they could do.
2. Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter around. Absolutely yes for the NLDS. No way for the NLCS.
The reason? It's simple - Joe Kelly beaning him in the ribs in Game 1 of the NLCS. Ramirez was already banged up enough from the season, but this is the injury that caused his average to tumble from .500 after the NLDS to .323 five games later (he sat out Game 2). What a shame, too, because the offense was never able to overcome his lack of production.
3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage. Of the regular starters, Puig's .333 led the team for the postseason. He was much better in the NLDS, as he had a hit in all four games, including multi-hits in three of them, all wins.
With that said, he was pushed back to the #5 spot right before the start of the postseason, and he only had two RBIs the entire way. Not exactly the type of production you'd want from a guy in that spot.
4. Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen closing out games. Both men brought the goods, and both more than delivered. Wilson did not allow any runs in six appearances, and showed the world that he's ready to close again in 2014. Of course, staying on to be the top setup man would be nice as well!
Jansen only had one slip-up in Game 5 of the NLCS by allowing a couple of runs, but the Dodgers still won, so it didn't matter. He had a whopping 10 strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings, good for an incredible 20.77 K/9. He collected a couple of saves as well.
5. Road Warriors. The Dodgers played four games away from home, and only won one of them. They split in Atlanta before wrapping it up at home, and lost all three games in St. Louis. The injury to Ramirez was definitely a big reason why, but for a team that finished tied for tops in the Majors with 45 wins away from home, their play on the road in the postseason was a disappointment.
Reasons They Won't
1. No Matt Kemp. Absolutely this turned out to be a big issue. There were countless amounts of times the Dodgers had runners on, failed to drive them in, and I'd think about Kemp getting the job done. Not the beat up Kemp, the version that is feeling good and the ball is jumping off his bat. As we saw in the NLCS, a run here or there could've meant a World Series trip for the Dodgers. We'll never know.
2. Injury prone. Oh boy, did I call this or what? Everything was going quite smoothly until Kelly plunked Ramirez, and the Dodgers were never the same.
The numbers don't lie: in the NLDS they averaged 6.5 runs a game, and in the NLCS they averaged 2.2, including two shutouts. Of course, it's not like everybody was hurt, as guys like Andre Ethier and Juan Uribe did a big pile of nothing against the Cardinals. It sure seemed like a trickle down effect once Ramirez was clearly not the same.
3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage. I already pointed out his solid .333 postseason average. But, there were bumps along the way. He started off 0-for-10 with six strikeouts through two games of the NLCS. When he did start to hit, he infuriated the Cardinals with his antics on the bases in celebration. Then there was his bad overthrows in the Game 6 blowout.
Bottom line is that you have to take the good with the bad with him, and hope there's more good. There was a lot of good against the Braves, but not so much with a World Series berth on the line.
4. Streaky offense. Just look at my numbers from above about the runs averaged per round. When you get to the NLCS and fall over four runs shy per game than the previous round, all the pitching in the world probably won't get you the wins needed to advance. That's exactly what happened.
5. Ricky Nolasco fading. In 10 games, Nolasco only made one start, which was Game 4 of the NLCS. With the Dodgers trailing in the series 2-1, he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs, taking the loss. He wasn't awful, but certainly wasn't good either.
He was lined up to start Game 4 of the NLDS, but Mattingly went with Kershaw on three days' rest instead. That move ended up working, but who knows if Kershaw felt some long-term effects from that. Maybe he had a dead arm in the last start? Nobody knows for sure, and he's definitely not telling anyone if he was less than 100%. It's just a shame that after such a fantastic start, Nolasco faded so badly that the rotation in the playoffs was thrown a bit out of whack.
Well... we obviously know they didn't, so let's take a look at each key point and break it down.
Reasons They Will
1. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke as the 1-2 punch. Everything was working out quite nicely for this... and then Game 6 of the NLCS hit. And that's when Kershaw had his worst start of the season with seven runs in four innings. Even with that clunker, he had a 3.13 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four October starts, striking out 28 in 23 innings.
Greinke was also solid, recording a 2.57 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in three starts. The only downside is that he twice surrendered a 2-0 lead to the Cardinals, and on the losing end against the Braves, though that was hardly his fault. He was signed to be the ace right behind Kershaw, and that's what he did.
All in all, these guys definitely provided the punch, but their offense did not give them the love they needed. They both went in the first couple of games in St. Louis, and both were loses because of virtually no run support. In other words, there wasn't a whole lot more they could do.
2. Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter around. Absolutely yes for the NLDS. No way for the NLCS.
The reason? It's simple - Joe Kelly beaning him in the ribs in Game 1 of the NLCS. Ramirez was already banged up enough from the season, but this is the injury that caused his average to tumble from .500 after the NLDS to .323 five games later (he sat out Game 2). What a shame, too, because the offense was never able to overcome his lack of production.
3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage. Of the regular starters, Puig's .333 led the team for the postseason. He was much better in the NLDS, as he had a hit in all four games, including multi-hits in three of them, all wins.
With that said, he was pushed back to the #5 spot right before the start of the postseason, and he only had two RBIs the entire way. Not exactly the type of production you'd want from a guy in that spot.
4. Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen closing out games. Both men brought the goods, and both more than delivered. Wilson did not allow any runs in six appearances, and showed the world that he's ready to close again in 2014. Of course, staying on to be the top setup man would be nice as well!
Jansen only had one slip-up in Game 5 of the NLCS by allowing a couple of runs, but the Dodgers still won, so it didn't matter. He had a whopping 10 strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings, good for an incredible 20.77 K/9. He collected a couple of saves as well.
5. Road Warriors. The Dodgers played four games away from home, and only won one of them. They split in Atlanta before wrapping it up at home, and lost all three games in St. Louis. The injury to Ramirez was definitely a big reason why, but for a team that finished tied for tops in the Majors with 45 wins away from home, their play on the road in the postseason was a disappointment.
Reasons They Won't
1. No Matt Kemp. Absolutely this turned out to be a big issue. There were countless amounts of times the Dodgers had runners on, failed to drive them in, and I'd think about Kemp getting the job done. Not the beat up Kemp, the version that is feeling good and the ball is jumping off his bat. As we saw in the NLCS, a run here or there could've meant a World Series trip for the Dodgers. We'll never know.
2. Injury prone. Oh boy, did I call this or what? Everything was going quite smoothly until Kelly plunked Ramirez, and the Dodgers were never the same.
The numbers don't lie: in the NLDS they averaged 6.5 runs a game, and in the NLCS they averaged 2.2, including two shutouts. Of course, it's not like everybody was hurt, as guys like Andre Ethier and Juan Uribe did a big pile of nothing against the Cardinals. It sure seemed like a trickle down effect once Ramirez was clearly not the same.
3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage. I already pointed out his solid .333 postseason average. But, there were bumps along the way. He started off 0-for-10 with six strikeouts through two games of the NLCS. When he did start to hit, he infuriated the Cardinals with his antics on the bases in celebration. Then there was his bad overthrows in the Game 6 blowout.
Bottom line is that you have to take the good with the bad with him, and hope there's more good. There was a lot of good against the Braves, but not so much with a World Series berth on the line.
4. Streaky offense. Just look at my numbers from above about the runs averaged per round. When you get to the NLCS and fall over four runs shy per game than the previous round, all the pitching in the world probably won't get you the wins needed to advance. That's exactly what happened.
5. Ricky Nolasco fading. In 10 games, Nolasco only made one start, which was Game 4 of the NLCS. With the Dodgers trailing in the series 2-1, he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs, taking the loss. He wasn't awful, but certainly wasn't good either.
He was lined up to start Game 4 of the NLDS, but Mattingly went with Kershaw on three days' rest instead. That move ended up working, but who knows if Kershaw felt some long-term effects from that. Maybe he had a dead arm in the last start? Nobody knows for sure, and he's definitely not telling anyone if he was less than 100%. It's just a shame that after such a fantastic start, Nolasco faded so badly that the rotation in the playoffs was thrown a bit out of whack.
Monday, September 30, 2013
5 reasons the Dodgers will win the World Series... and 5 reasons they won't
Here we go, postseason time! The Dodgers open up in Atlanta in the best-of-five series for a trip to the NLCS. And from there, in what would be their first trip back in 25 years since winning it all in 1988, the Fall Classic.
Let's take a look at five reasons the Dodgers can win it all, and five reasons they might not.
Think Positively!
1. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke as a 1-2 punch. There are plenty of great arms on display in the postseason, but none quite as good as what the Dodgers can roll out to the mound the first two games of any series. No matter who is in or out of the lineup, Don Mattingly knows the Dodgers have a great chance with Kershaw and Greinke toeing the rubber.
Based on the second half of the season, it's no stretch to say that these guys are also the top two pitchers in baseball right now. We all know how fantastic Kershaw was in what will be his second Cy Young Award won (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP ), but Greinke's stats after the All-Star break have been phenomenal as well (7-2, 1.85 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). If your numbers approach Kershaw's, even for half the season, then you've done something pretty special. Despite playing at home for the first couple of games of the NLDS, the Braves can't feel that great about their chances. The numbers back it up.
2. Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter around. There's no doubt that 2013 has been the season that has put Ramirez back on the map, despite playing in only 86 games because of various injuries. But by hitting .345 with 20 homers and 57 RBIs, he reminded everyone just how well-rounded a hitter he is.
Now is the time for Ramirez to put the offense on his back and get the big hits needed to win. With Matt Kemp out for the playoffs, it's even more important that he hits well. Yes, he's still banged up, but even at less than 100%, he's a great hitter. After only gathering 11 at-bats in April and May combined, he ended July with a .365 average, 10 homers, and 34 RBIs. I don't think at any point this season he's been fully healthy, so that stats show just how good he is anyway. A big month of October will not only lead the Dodgers to a title, but a big fat contract extension as well!
3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage. There's just something about Puig and his flair for dramatics that can get Dodger fans excited. After making a big splash in Spring Training, he was called up on June 2 with the Dodgers at a pathetic 23-32. Puig lit a fire in this team that helped carry them to the NL West title.
His lack of big game experience shouldn't be a factor at all, because if anyone is ready and willing to go all out, all the time, it's Puig. He's the type of player that can strikeout his first four at-bats, then hit the game-winning homer in his fifth. He can also make the big diving catch to save a game. I think he's chomping at the bit to get out there and prove what kind of a great player he is.
4. Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen closing out games. It's taken only 18 games for Wilson to prove that not only is he back, he's just as dominant as ever. Combine his arm with Kenley Jansen's, and the Dodgers have to feel very confident with a lead after seven innings.
Wilson carries an 0.66 ERA into the postseason along with three holds. He's a more reliable option than Ronald Belisario, who continues to go from good to bad one game to the next. Wilson also has the obvious postseason experience having won two rings with the Giants, including closing out the World Series over the Rangers in 2010. Jansen was sensational in the closer's role with 28 saves, a 1.88 ERA, and 111 strikeouts in 76 2/3 innings. They're both ready to let it loose.
5. Road warriors. The team with the best record away from home? That would be the Dodgers, which tied the Rangers for tops in the Majors at a 45-36 clip. Thanks in large part to their historic 15-game road winning streak around the All-Star break, the Dodgers appear just as comfortable away from home as they do at Chavez Ravine.
Of course any team would rather open up the postseason at home, but keep in mind that Kershaw and Greinke are going the first two games in Atlanta, so the Dodgers' confidence has to be high. Basically they need to take one game on the road to regain home field advantage, which seems doable. And based on their great road record, it can certainly happen.
Watch Out!
1. No Matt Kemp. As Don Mattingly correctly pointed out as news of Kemp's shutdown hit on Sunday, the Dodgers went 42-8 at one point without him. Kemp has only played in 179 games the last two seasons, so they're certainly used to not having him around.
But with all of that said, there's just no way the Dodgers won't miss him. Opposing pitchers have to gameplan a whole heck of a lot more against Kemp than they do for his replacements like Skip Schumaker, or even Andre Ethier, who might also miss the NLDS. Kemp has the type of impact bat that could give the Dodgers a big lead late in the game with a home run. That's so hard to replace. And since all signs were that he'd be back for the postseason, only to get the bad news after the last regular season game, there's no doubt it's a big blow for everyone.
2. Injury prone. To go along with Kemp, it seems like there are so many guys who are only a play away from being done for the season as well. Ethier is most likely either scratched from the NLDS or is only a pinch-hitter. Ramirez has been banged up all season. Puig has been battling through a few ailments lately as well.
Don Mattingly is used to mixing and matching his lineup on a daily basis, but still, it's tough not to be able to write in his big guns everyday and let them do their thing. The fact that Schumaker is the probable starting centerfielder is a reminder just how things can change so quickly. Can you imagine what would happen if Kershaw, Greinke, or Jansen got hurt as well? Man, that would be awful.
3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage. Yes, you read that right. As much as Puig is about to embrace the bright lights of October, it could turn out to be a disaster if he gets out of control.
We've already seen Mattingly and his own teammates get on his case for throwing temper tantrums, and trying to throw guys out from about 800 feet away, allowing runners to move up. Plus, there have been a whole lot of swings and misses of late, mostly because he looks like he's trying to kill everything. Expect pitchers to make him expand the zone and challenge him to be patient. What if he doesn't want to walk? He'll be an easy out from the leadoff spot if he can't control himself, and the offense will suffer.
4. Streaky offense. It's true that the final three-game series against the Rockies was meaningless in the big picture, but take a look at their run production: 11, 0, 1. That's not exactly the most encouraging way to enter the postseason.
Their runs scored has dipped quite a bit in September. In August they scored 128 runs (4.4 AVG), good for third in the NL. This past month that fell to 102 (3.8 AVG), which was ninth. Granted, some of those games were played with quirky lineups thanks to being the first team to clinch the division, but plenty of the regulars still got their swings in. Maybe the offense is ready to roll again with a set lineup, but they'll have to prove that. And with Kemp not in there, it'll be even tougher.
5. Ricky Nolasco fading. After shutting down the Diamondbacks on September 9, Nolasco stood at 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA in 12 starts with the Dodgers. It sure looked like the Dodgers had a huge advantage in the first three games of any series with Kershaw, Greinke, and Nolasco, not to mention Hyun-Jin Ryu after that. Life was good.
And then life was bad. His next three starts were an unbelievable disaster, as he got bombed by going 0-2 with a 12.75 ERA. He seriously went from unhittable to batting practice. There really was no in between. I firmly believe he would've been the Game 3 starter, but not anymore. Suppose the Dodgers are down 2-1 in the NLDS, how confident are they sending him to the mound? It's hard to say they would feel that good about it right now. That's how badly things have turned around for him.
Let's take a look at five reasons the Dodgers can win it all, and five reasons they might not.
Think Positively!
1. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke as a 1-2 punch. There are plenty of great arms on display in the postseason, but none quite as good as what the Dodgers can roll out to the mound the first two games of any series. No matter who is in or out of the lineup, Don Mattingly knows the Dodgers have a great chance with Kershaw and Greinke toeing the rubber.
Based on the second half of the season, it's no stretch to say that these guys are also the top two pitchers in baseball right now. We all know how fantastic Kershaw was in what will be his second Cy Young Award won (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP ), but Greinke's stats after the All-Star break have been phenomenal as well (7-2, 1.85 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). If your numbers approach Kershaw's, even for half the season, then you've done something pretty special. Despite playing at home for the first couple of games of the NLDS, the Braves can't feel that great about their chances. The numbers back it up.
2. Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter around. There's no doubt that 2013 has been the season that has put Ramirez back on the map, despite playing in only 86 games because of various injuries. But by hitting .345 with 20 homers and 57 RBIs, he reminded everyone just how well-rounded a hitter he is.
Now is the time for Ramirez to put the offense on his back and get the big hits needed to win. With Matt Kemp out for the playoffs, it's even more important that he hits well. Yes, he's still banged up, but even at less than 100%, he's a great hitter. After only gathering 11 at-bats in April and May combined, he ended July with a .365 average, 10 homers, and 34 RBIs. I don't think at any point this season he's been fully healthy, so that stats show just how good he is anyway. A big month of October will not only lead the Dodgers to a title, but a big fat contract extension as well!
3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage. There's just something about Puig and his flair for dramatics that can get Dodger fans excited. After making a big splash in Spring Training, he was called up on June 2 with the Dodgers at a pathetic 23-32. Puig lit a fire in this team that helped carry them to the NL West title.
His lack of big game experience shouldn't be a factor at all, because if anyone is ready and willing to go all out, all the time, it's Puig. He's the type of player that can strikeout his first four at-bats, then hit the game-winning homer in his fifth. He can also make the big diving catch to save a game. I think he's chomping at the bit to get out there and prove what kind of a great player he is.
4. Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen closing out games. It's taken only 18 games for Wilson to prove that not only is he back, he's just as dominant as ever. Combine his arm with Kenley Jansen's, and the Dodgers have to feel very confident with a lead after seven innings.
Wilson carries an 0.66 ERA into the postseason along with three holds. He's a more reliable option than Ronald Belisario, who continues to go from good to bad one game to the next. Wilson also has the obvious postseason experience having won two rings with the Giants, including closing out the World Series over the Rangers in 2010. Jansen was sensational in the closer's role with 28 saves, a 1.88 ERA, and 111 strikeouts in 76 2/3 innings. They're both ready to let it loose.
5. Road warriors. The team with the best record away from home? That would be the Dodgers, which tied the Rangers for tops in the Majors at a 45-36 clip. Thanks in large part to their historic 15-game road winning streak around the All-Star break, the Dodgers appear just as comfortable away from home as they do at Chavez Ravine.
Of course any team would rather open up the postseason at home, but keep in mind that Kershaw and Greinke are going the first two games in Atlanta, so the Dodgers' confidence has to be high. Basically they need to take one game on the road to regain home field advantage, which seems doable. And based on their great road record, it can certainly happen.
Watch Out!
1. No Matt Kemp. As Don Mattingly correctly pointed out as news of Kemp's shutdown hit on Sunday, the Dodgers went 42-8 at one point without him. Kemp has only played in 179 games the last two seasons, so they're certainly used to not having him around.
But with all of that said, there's just no way the Dodgers won't miss him. Opposing pitchers have to gameplan a whole heck of a lot more against Kemp than they do for his replacements like Skip Schumaker, or even Andre Ethier, who might also miss the NLDS. Kemp has the type of impact bat that could give the Dodgers a big lead late in the game with a home run. That's so hard to replace. And since all signs were that he'd be back for the postseason, only to get the bad news after the last regular season game, there's no doubt it's a big blow for everyone.
2. Injury prone. To go along with Kemp, it seems like there are so many guys who are only a play away from being done for the season as well. Ethier is most likely either scratched from the NLDS or is only a pinch-hitter. Ramirez has been banged up all season. Puig has been battling through a few ailments lately as well.
Don Mattingly is used to mixing and matching his lineup on a daily basis, but still, it's tough not to be able to write in his big guns everyday and let them do their thing. The fact that Schumaker is the probable starting centerfielder is a reminder just how things can change so quickly. Can you imagine what would happen if Kershaw, Greinke, or Jansen got hurt as well? Man, that would be awful.
3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage. Yes, you read that right. As much as Puig is about to embrace the bright lights of October, it could turn out to be a disaster if he gets out of control.
We've already seen Mattingly and his own teammates get on his case for throwing temper tantrums, and trying to throw guys out from about 800 feet away, allowing runners to move up. Plus, there have been a whole lot of swings and misses of late, mostly because he looks like he's trying to kill everything. Expect pitchers to make him expand the zone and challenge him to be patient. What if he doesn't want to walk? He'll be an easy out from the leadoff spot if he can't control himself, and the offense will suffer.
4. Streaky offense. It's true that the final three-game series against the Rockies was meaningless in the big picture, but take a look at their run production: 11, 0, 1. That's not exactly the most encouraging way to enter the postseason.
Their runs scored has dipped quite a bit in September. In August they scored 128 runs (4.4 AVG), good for third in the NL. This past month that fell to 102 (3.8 AVG), which was ninth. Granted, some of those games were played with quirky lineups thanks to being the first team to clinch the division, but plenty of the regulars still got their swings in. Maybe the offense is ready to roll again with a set lineup, but they'll have to prove that. And with Kemp not in there, it'll be even tougher.
5. Ricky Nolasco fading. After shutting down the Diamondbacks on September 9, Nolasco stood at 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA in 12 starts with the Dodgers. It sure looked like the Dodgers had a huge advantage in the first three games of any series with Kershaw, Greinke, and Nolasco, not to mention Hyun-Jin Ryu after that. Life was good.
And then life was bad. His next three starts were an unbelievable disaster, as he got bombed by going 0-2 with a 12.75 ERA. He seriously went from unhittable to batting practice. There really was no in between. I firmly believe he would've been the Game 3 starter, but not anymore. Suppose the Dodgers are down 2-1 in the NLDS, how confident are they sending him to the mound? It's hard to say they would feel that good about it right now. That's how badly things have turned around for him.
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