Showing posts with label Guerrier. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guerrier. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

The stomach ache (Guerrier) gets traded for the headache (Marmol)

If there was ever a definition of trading one bad player for another for a "change of scenery," this is it.

Both the Dodgers and Cubs can only hope that's true, as Carlos Marmol has been shipped to the Dodgers for Matt Guerrier.  Both have healthy contracts, and both have struggled mightily this year.  In addition, the Dodgers will receive extra cash along with $209,000 in international signing considerations.

And if you don't think the Dodgers value the international market, I ask you to take a peek at the stats of some guy named Yasiel Puig.  So this was a good add-on to the trade.

Marmol has had quite the up and down career, but 2013 has been pretty much rock bottom.  He's only 2-5 in save opportunities, to go along with a whopping 5.83 ERA and 1.70 WHIP.  Yikes.  Much like Dodger fans felt each time Brandon League took the ball with a lead in the ninth, Cub fans knew to expect the worst.  And neither did anything to change that.

What can Marmol do for LA?  As I mentioned above, it's all about the infamous "change of scenery" for struggling players.  From 2010-2012, he saved 38, 34, 20 games, respectively.  So the history of pitching effectively late in games is there.  The Dodgers tweeted out an interesting fact: since 2007, Marmol leads all relievers with 644 K's, and is fourth with a .174 BAA.

That's all well and good, but obviously Marmol is a different pitcher now.  The Dodgers recently promoted Jose Dominguez and Chris Withrow to pitch in middle relief.  They certainly have good stuff, but are still rookies.  Ronald Belisario and League are awful.  Paco Rodriguez and J.P. Howell are reliable lefties.

So this certainly gives Marmol a chance to get some holds, bridging the gap to Kenley Jansen.  In a perfect world, League would get DFA'd, but not with that contract.  Maybe Belisario?  I'd be fine with that.  I have a feeling it will be Withrow, since Dominguez throws near 100 MPH and wowed everybody in his one inning on Sunday.

The biggest hurdle Marmol will have is lowering his walks, as 21 in 27 2/3 innings is way too many.  He has 32 strikeouts, so he still shows the ability to get hitters to swing and miss.  Rick Honeycutt doesn't have much to lose by working with him, so let's see where this goes.

As for Guerrier, he leaves as a major disappointment.  He signed a three-year, $12 million deal before 2011 to be the primary setup guy.  It never worked out.  He appeared in 70 games in '11 with a 4.07 ERA, and injuries limited him to only 16 games last year.  In 34 appearances this year, he had a 4.80 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  He was DFA'd a few days ago, so he was on his way out regardless.

Saturday, June 29, 2013

I guess this is why the Dodgers want to trade for pitching

There's really only one way to sum up Friday night's 16-1 shellacking to the Phillies: it sucked.

End of story.

It was the worst home loss the Dodgers suffered since moving from Brooklyn, if you want to look further into it.  Chris Capuano was absolutely horrific, and the bullpen of Peter Moylan, Matt Guerrier, and Brandon League were just atrocious.

Oh, Skip Schumaker pitched a scoreless ninth.  That might be the most embarrassing stat of the night.

For those of you wondering why the Dodgers would be linked to a guy like Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins, this is it.  I wrote the other day about how the Dodgers were getting good production from the back end of their rotation during this recent six-game winning streak.  Well, you can throw that out the window after Friday.  It's hard to imagine Capuano being much worse.

Nolasco seems to be the biggest name out there so far, at least well before the trade deadline at the end of July starts sparking new names.  He's the type of guy who certainly has the potential, but is notorious for not living up to those projections.  And guess what?  He was hit around by the Padres at home before the Dodgers took the field on Friday, giving up five runs and 11 hits in five innings.  Not exactly the type of start that encourages Dodger fans.

Still, would making a move for Nolasco be worth it?  There's understandable concern that Capuano, Stephen Fife, and Ted Lilly are not the answers down the stretch.  I like the way Fife has looked lately, so perhaps he'll be fine, but I can see why management wants an upgrade to solidify the fourth and fifth rotation spots.

This season, Nolasco is 4-8 with a 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 83 K's in 103 1/3 innings.  Those numbers aren't bad, but he's in a rough patch right now.  He was only 1-4 in May, but with a 3.57 ERA.  In five June starts, he's fallen back at 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA.  One step forward, one step back.

Money is no object for the Dodgers anymore, so they can easily cover the remaining $6 million left on Nolasco's deal.  When it comes to players with big money owed, you can automatically link the Dodgers to them after the Red Sox trade from last year.  So that gives them an edge over teams reluctant to take on all that money.

Before Friday's game, I would have said that the Dodgers should steer clear of him.  But Capuano was so bad and so discouraging, I'm completely rethinking that stance.  I can't imagine the Dodgers would have to give up much to get him as long as they take his contract, so no major players would be on the move to Miami.  Maybe Nolasco is one of those "change of scenery" type of players where getting away can only help.  Rick Honeycutt has had success with all sorts of different pitchers, so I'd like to see what he can do with Nolasco.

As for the bullpen, I haven't seen any specific names linked to them, but that will change soon.  There's no way they can feel confident about winning anytime they give the ball to guys like League, Moylan, and Guerrier.  Ditto for Ronald Belisario.  The only ones they feel good about are Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, and Paco Rodriguez.  As much as Don Mattingly would like to, he can't put them in there EVERY game.

Sunday, June 2, 2013

What's wrong with the Dodgers? Start with the bullpen

After the Dodgers blew a lead for the second consecutive game, this time resulting in a loss to the Rockies on Saturday, Don Mattingly is once again searching for answers.  If the middle relief does well, the closer stinks.  If the middle relief stinks, the closer doesn't get a chance.  It's been that ugly.

Let's take a look at some key stats for the team and individually for the 'pen.

Team Bullpen Stats:
ERA: 4.24 (23rd)
Losses: 14 (1st)
Saves: 14 (14th)
Blown Saves: 11 (tied for 2nd)
Save %: 56 (27th)
Earned Runs: 75 (tied for 8th)
Batting Average Against: .262 (26th)

It's hard to put any sort of positive spin on these numbers.  The loses could be inflated a bit because the offense doesn't score enough runs.  But still, a 56% save percentage is really bad.

Brandon League
20 1/3 IP, 1-2, 5.31 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 11 SV, 3 BS, 10 K
Things have gotten a little worse and worse for League, as he continues to give shaky performances when they count the most in the ninth.  He's certainly not blowing anyone away, which suggests that he'll have a tough time turning things around.  I just don't see him as a reliable closer anymore, which is a shame considering he was signed for three years before the season.  I'm guessing Ned Colletti would like to take that contract back.

Kenley Jansen
26 2/3 IP, 1-3, 3.04 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2 SV, 1 BS, 11 HLD (Holds), 37 K
While Jansen may not be quite as dominant as previous seasons, it's hard to ask him to continually match that success.  He still has nearly 12.5 K/9, which is outstanding.  I still wish he had another pitch other than a cut fastball, but at this point, it's time he gets save opportunities.

Ronald Belisario
27 1/3 IP, 3-4, 3.62 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 1 SV, 3 BS, 5 HLD, 21 K
Belisario emerged last year as a very good reliever, but once again has fallen off.  This has been his MO during his career: one good year, then one bad.  His ERA is pretty high, but his WHIP is very high, which obviously means way too many baserunners allowed.  He shouldn't be handed the ball late in the game with a lead anymore.  You never know what you're going to get with him.

J.P. Howell
24 1/3 IP, 1-0, 2.22 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 0 SV, 0 BS, 3 HLD, 23 K
I know Howell is looked at as more of a situational left-handed pitcher, but that needs to change.  Think about it - would you rather see Howell pitch late, or Belisario or Matt Guerrier?  Exactly.  Howell doesn't allow many baserunners and has a good strikeout rate.  That's a great sign.

Matt Guerrier
20 2/3 IP, 1-2, 3.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 0 SV, 1 BS, 3 HLD, 10 K
Much like League, here's another guy with a three-year deal who has underwhelmed, to say the least.  His numbers are just OK.  He'll look good one day, then bad the next.  A good way to sum him up is Saturday's game.  He relieved with one out in he 10th, got the next batter with ease, then three straight hits led to the a Dodgers' loss.  I trust him a little more than Belisario, but that's not saying much.

Paco Rodriguez
18 2/3 IP, 1-2, 2.89 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 0 SV, 2 BS, 7 HLD, 20 K
Not only are Paco's numbers very good, but they've only gotten better as the season has progressed.  After posting a 4.32 ERA in April, he lowered it to 1.93 in May.  He knows how to strike people out, and opponents are only hitting .133 against him.  Like Howell, I'd like to see him get the ball later in the game, as he's earned the opportunity.

To sum it all up, here's how I would like to see the pecking order in the bullpen:
Closer: Jansen
Setup: Howell, Rodriguez
Middle Relief: League, Belisario, Guerrier

The wild card in all of this is Peter Moylan, a righty who pitched sparingly with the Braves the last couple of seasons.  He was once one of their most reliable relievers, gathering 25 and 21 holds in 2009 and 2010, respectively.  If Mattingly insists on using a righty in the eighth, why not give him a shot?  Better than watching guys like League, Belisario, and Guerrier flop again.

Sunday, April 28, 2013

At this rate, it's going to be a long year with this bullpen

Matt Magill had everything going for him on Saturday night.  The emergency starter who arrived at Dodger Stadium all of a few hours before the game went 6 1/3 innings for four hits, two runs, two walks, and seven strikeouts.  He left in the seventh with a 3-2 lead and in line for a win.

Did he get that win?  Nope.  Thank you, bullpen.

Paco Rodriguez gave up a single to his only batter, Matt Guerrier was atrocious in giving up a couple of two-run homers, and the Brewers once again exposed that horrible bullpen in getting a 6-4 victory.

If you're a Dodger fan, you're both frustrated and not at all surprised by this.  Plus you're probably mad at Don Mattingly for pulling Magill in the first place.  I know Magill was over 100 pitches, but the last batter he faced was a strikeout of Jean Segura, then Rodriguez and Guerrier completely blew all that hard work.  That damn pitch count excuse... UGH.

Here are some interesting numbers for the bullpen this season:

ERA: 4.41 (24th)
WHIP: 1.39 (26th)
ER: 32 (10th highest)
BB: 31 (8th highest)

Plus, you can factor in they have 65 1/3 innings pitched, which is only 25th in the majors.  So it's not like numbers such as earned runs and walks are inflated because they pitch much more than other teams.  It's actually just the opposite.

It's hard to like much of anything about this group.  Kenley Jansen has a 1.50 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings, so he's been good.  Brandon League is 7-8 in saves, but his ERA is high at 4.50.  Ronald Belisario has a 3.09 ERA, but a high WHIP at 1.46.

Everybody else has been flat out horrendous.  Here are the ERAs for the rest of this crew: Paco Rodriguez (4.93), Matt Guerrier (5.40), J.P. Howell (5.40), Josh Wall (12.60).  Shawn Tolleson doesn't have an ERA, but he walked the only two batters he's faced.  So his WHIP is infinity!

Considering that Zack Greinke, Chad Billingsley, Chris Capuano, and Stephen Fife are all on the DL, this problem is magnified even more.  And Saturday night was the perfect example that even when a starter is effective and goes pretty deep into the game, the late innings are a huge advantage for the opposing team. 

You want another interesting stat?  Over the last seven days, the Dodgers are fourth in the majors (first the NL) in runs scored at 37.  Yes, seriously.  They've actually been pushing runs across the plate, but then guys like Guerrier and Rodriguez completely flush it down the toilet.  It's hard to watch.

At this point, the Dodgers have to be thinking about making some moves to improve this unit.  How much longer can they accept watching most of these guys stumble late in the game?  For a team with an astronomical payroll and expectations, patience has to be very thin.  And rightfully so.

Friday, December 17, 2010

Durable Guerrier joins the 'pen

***UPDATE***

Well, so much for the rumors about Bill Hall joining the Dodgers. Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Hall has inked a deal with the Astros to play second base. Oh well.

***

The Dodgers made yet another offseason move to strengthen their bullpen on Thursday. This time they plucked away Matt Guerrier from the Twins with a three-year, $12 million deal. Other teams interested in his services were the Rockies, Yankees, and Red Sox.

What we know about Guerrier is that if the bullpen needs to be called upon, he's most likely the guy to answer. His 76 appearances in 2008 and 79 in 2009 led the American League, and 74 last season was third. If Don Mattingly wanted a workhorse, he's got one.

Guerrier also has some nice statistics for holds the last four seasons: 14, 20, 33, and 23. Last season he went 5-7 with one save, a 3.17 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts in 71 innings. The year before he had a 2.36 ERA, but in '08 it was 5.19. Let's hope that was an aberration.

In looking at last season's splits, he did his best work in the beginning and end of the year. His July ERA was 8.00, and 5.27 in August. But, he bounced back with great work in September at 1.67, and didn't give up a run in 1 1/3 innings against the Yankees in the postseason.

As of now, Jonathan Broxton is still the closer, so it looks like Guerrier will team with Hong-Chih Kuo to bridge the gap. That's a pretty good combination from both sides of the rubber. Plus, there's young Kenley Jansen, who was very impressive at the end of the season. If Ronald Belisario and Broxton get back to normal, that's a fantastic bullpen.

But, if there's one thing we learned about last season, it's that looking good on paper means nothing once the games have started. A bullpen that dominated in 2009 looked all out of whack last year. So, if Broxton continues to fade under the spotlight, Belisario remains ineffective, Jansen shows his youth, and Kuo's arm troubles resurface, then the Dodgers are thin once again, even with Guerrier.

While many things can happen, the Dodgers have to love what they did this offseason to improve their pitching. They have five legit starters (Kershaw, Billingsley, Lilly, Kuroda, and Garland), a swingman that can do a little of everything (Padilla), and a bullpen that is deep (Broxton, Kuo, Guerrier, Jansen, and Belisario). Ned Colletti has definitely taken a huge step forward in that regard.

Next up is still looking to add a left fielder. There's rumors about getting Bill Hall, who spent last year with the Red Sox and hit .247 with 18 homers and 46 RBIs in 119 games. Not exactly a killer year, but he does have pop, and hit 35 homers in 2006, so maybe he's still good, right?