The NLCS presents a fun matchup between the National League's two best teams. The Dodgers are red-hot after sweeping the Cardinals, to the shock of many. The Phillies won two tough games in Coors Field over the Rockies to advance.
Last year, the Phillies disposed of the Dodgers, 4-1. The Dodgers had a chance to even the series at 2-2, but Matt Stairs' pinch-hit, two-run homer off of Jonathan Broxton in the eighth inning broke a 5-5 tie, pretty much ending the series right there. I'm not sure that ball has landed yet.
For the Dodgers, the plan is simple: get revenge for last year and get back to their first World Series since the infamous 1988 season. The Phillies want to repeat as champs.
Here are five keys to the Dodgers playing into November:
1) Win the first two games at home.
The reason is simple: unless Cliff Lee comes back on short rest, he won't pitch until Game 3. Therefore, it'll be Cole Hamels, and someone like J.A. Happ or Pedro Martinez.
The Phillies won the first couple of home games last year, and it obviously gave them plenty of momentum. Hamels has historically owned the Dodgers, winning both games in last year's LCS and a complete game shutout on June 4 in Dodger Stadium. Getting a win over him in Game 1 would be huge.
If Lee truly doesn't go until the series goes back east, then Randy Wolf will have an advantage over the other Phillies' options. With the format 2-3-2, winning both at home would guarantee home games in Games 6 and 7 at the very least.
2) Keep the Phillies in the yard.
The Phillies are tied for second in the majors for home runs at 224 (Yankees are first at 244). Somehow, they actually have more homers on the road than at home, 116-108. Either way, they can mash. With Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez in the lineup, it's no secret why.
That's not to say that the Phillies hit home runs and nothing else, because they have the talent to win in other ways. But, shutting down the long ball will allow the Dodgers to use their great defense to keep games under control.
3) Keep Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino off base.
After hitting a pathetic .207 through June, Rollins ended up at .250. While that's still bad for a leadoff hitter, it shows he at least got better as the season wore on. Victorino made the All-Star team with a .292 average.
Both men combined to steal 56 bases. If they are kept off base, it limits the chances of the Phillies changing games with one swing. Solo homers are much easier to manage than three-run shots. The first two hitters of the game will set the course for how the series could go.
4) Get the lead after five innings.
As the Cardinals found out, the Dodgers can realistically turn games into five-inning affairs. Arms like Ronald Belisario, Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton can all get outs at any point.
If the starters can find a way to get a lead going into the middle-to-late innings, then the Dodgers have to feel very good about getting wins.
5) Get to the Phillies' bullpen.
It's no secret what kind of an adventure the closing situation has been for the Phillies. Brad Lidge went from 41-41 in save situations last season to 11 blown saves and a 7.21 ERA this year. Ryan Madson hasn't been much better, blowing six saves in 16 chances. Needless to say, it's been ugly.
Lidge did get a couple of saves against the Rockies, so that should help his confidence. But, it's hard to imagine anyone on the Dodgers being scared of facing the bullpen. If games are close late, the advantage greatly swings towards the men in blue.
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