Monday, October 5, 2009

How the Dodgers can beat the Cardinals

Welcome to the playoffs. The Dodgers have home-field advantage throughout after posting an NL-best 95 wins. Their reward for a season of hard work?

Playing the Cardinals in the NLDS. Ugh.

After watching the "experts" on ESPN unanimously pick the Cards (the same ones that picked the Cubs last season), I got thinking how the Dodgers can pull this off. It technically wouldn't be an upset, but in most people's minds, it would be. So here's what I can up with.

5 Keys to an Upset

1) Get at least a split at home.
Normally when a team has home-field, they want to win all home games. But, when facing Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, I don't think it's fair to say the Dodgers need to win both. That's really hard to do, and that's to the the Cardinals' credit.

Carpenter is 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA, and Wainwright is 19-8 with a 2.63 ERA. Those numbers speak for themselves. But if the Dodgers can have at least one good hitting night, then they should be happy with that.

2) Get to the bullpen.
This is not to say that they don't have some good arms in the 'pen, because they do. Dennys Reyes, Trevor Miller, and Kyle McClellen are the top ones. But if asked which set of pitchers they'd rather face, the starters or the relievers, the Dodgers will gladly take on the relief core.

3) Let their own bullpen go to work.
On the flip side, the Dodgers need to get their bullpen in a situation to be successful. If they can let their top three guys - Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, and Jonathan Broxton - work the last three innings, it's a great sign.

How will that happen? The starters will need between 5-6 solid innings. They can do that.

4) Either Pujols or Holliday have to be contained.
Simply put, both of these guys cannot go nuts. If they do, this thing could be over in three. If one of them does well, fine. But not both.

In 63 games with the Cards, Holliday is hitting .353 with 13 homers. I'd say he's been a good addition. As for Pujols... well, he's Pujols. No explanation needed. It won't be easy, but shutting down one of those guys is important.

5) Manny needs to be the shinning star.
We all know how valuable Manny Ramirez was last postseason. He was red hot from the first to last game. This September, it's been a different tune. He hit a mere .229 and .486 SLG%, far below his career averages. To say the least, he limped to the finish line.

This series will most likely come down to Manny vs. Pujols. Manny needs to prove that he's still the most feared right-handed hitter in the game. If he leads the way in the middle of the order, then the Dodgers can advance to the NLCS.

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