Thursday, October 3, 2013

Dodgers set 25-man roster for the NLDS

The Dodgers' management has spoken, and here's the look at who made the cut for the Division Series against the Braves, starting today:

Starting Rotation
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ricky Nolasco

Bullpen
Kenley Jansen
Brian Wilson
J.P. Howell
Paco Rodriguez
Ronald Belisario
Chris Withrow
Chris Capuano (long relief)

Catchers
A.J. Ellis
Tim Federowicz

Infielders
Adrian Gonzalez
Mark Ellis
Hanley Ramirez
Juan Uribe
Michael Young
Dee Gordon

Outfielers
Carl Crawford
Yasiel Puig
Scott Van Slyke
Andre Ethier

Utility
Skip Schumaker
Nick Punto

Analysis: The biggest names to be left off are Brandon League, Carlos Marmol, and Jerry Hairston.  I completely agree with keeping League off, who was abysmal this year.  I also agree with Hairston, as Young is a much better option because of his bat.

Keeping Withrow over Marmol surprises me a little bit.  I though Marmol's experience would win out, and he did have a 2.53 ERA in 21 appearances with the Dodgers.  But his lack of control can be maddening, and we all know that in October, walks can kill you.  So Withrow it is, though I don't see him pitching meaningful innings anyway.

Ethier ended up making the cut, and will be relegated to pinch-hitting duties.  I wrote yesterday about how this slightly concerns me, but it is what it is.  Gordon should get unleashed late in games when the Dodgers need that extra run.  That should be fun to watch.

Overall, the Dodgers will miss Matt Kemp and the impact his bat can make, but nonetheless, they're good to go.  If they can get one in Atlanta and grab back home field advantage, they'll be in great shape with their pitching staff.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Update on Ethier's condition heading into the NLDS

As Game 1 of the NLDS against the Braves is only a day away, Andre Ethier does not appear to be anywhere close to full health.  Rather, it looks like he will be on the active roster, but only to pinch-hit.

The biggest factor going against Ethier is simply time, as he is slowly progressing, but not nearly fast enough to give it a full go.  He initially was hurt on September 4, aggravated it further on September 13, and hasn't started a game since.  He tried to workout in San Francisco not long ago, but felt too much discomfort when trying to round the bases.

With that said, Don Mattingly will make a few adjustments.  First, he'll put Carl Crawford back in the leadoff spot, allowing Yasiel Puig to move down to the #5 spot behind Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez for his run production.

Also, this could mean that guys like Jerry Hairston, Scott Van Slyke, or Dee Gordon could find themselves on the roster.  Hairston and Van Slyke could see time in the outfield, and Gordon might get some action in the "Billy Hamilton" pinch-running role.

I have to wonder, though, if keeping Ethier active is truly worth it.  I'm reading about keeping his bat active for late-game situations, something he's excelled at in the past.  But can he still contribute that way with a bad ankle?  With runners in scoring position, he hit .228.  With the bases loaded, he hit .143.  In late or close situations, he hit .218.

Not exactly numbers that ring "Get that guy in there!" late in a big spot.

I admire Ethier for his desire to stay in there, especially with Matt Kemp suffering his 93rd injury of the last couple of seasons, KO'ing him for the playoffs already.  I'm just a little worried that the Dodgers will expect him to come off the bench in a big spot and deliver.  He couldn't do it healthy, so I'm doubting it will happen on one good leg.

Then again, maybe he'll turn back the clock 25 years and deliver his own Kirk Gibson moment when we least expect it.

On the eve of playoffs, Scully makes a big decision

In what will truly mark the end of an era if it's true, Vin Scully said to radio station KPCC in Los Angeles today that the 2014 season may be his final one calling Dodger baseball.  He began his career calling games in Brooklyn, and next season will mark his 65th with the team.

What we have to remember is that this is not an official announcement.  It was merely Scully speculating that he feels next year could be it.  After all, he's an 85-year-old man, and retirement has to happen at some point.  As unbelievable as it would be to actually see that happen, the end appears to be near.

For now, just like the old sports cliche, let's take it one game at a time.  Enjoy Scully calling the first three and last three innings on radio of what's hopefully a long playoff run this year, and then back on TV next season.  Let's also hope for good health to allow him to go bow out of broadcasting as strong as ever.

Ryu will go in Game 3 of the NLDS, Nolasco in Game 4

In what shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody, Don Mattingly made offical today that Hyun-Jin Ryu will get the start in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Braves, and if necessary, Ricky Nolasco will go in Game 4.  Both games will be in Dodger Stadium.

Hopefully one of these games will be a closeout game considering Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke go first two games in Atlanta's Turner Field.  Then again, baseball can be a strange sport, so Ryu and Nolasco might have the responsibility of keeping the Dodgers alive.  You never know.

What we do know is that based on the end of the season, Ryu is clearly the better choice for Game 3.  He ended up 14-8 with an even 3.00 ERA in 30 starts this season, and the Braves do worse hitting against lefties (.239) than against righties (.252).  Plus, he's much better at home (2.32 ERA) than on the road (3.69 ERA).

Of course, Nolasco made the decision much easier for Mattingly by getting shelled his final three starts.  For awhile, it sure looked like he'd leapfrog Ryu for that Game 3 start, but that all came to a crashing thud in mid-September.  Hopefully, and especially if he is pitching to keep the Dodgers alive, he's figured out what has ailed him and the bats can back him up.  He still ended up 8-3 with a 3.52 ERA in 15 starts with the Dodgers, so the history of success is there at least.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Schedule and probables for the NLDS

Game 1, October 3 - Dodgers at Braves, 8:37 ET
Clayton Kershaw (16-9, 1.83) vs. Kris Medlen (15-12, 3.11)

Game 2, October 4 - Dodgers at Braves, 6:07 ET
Zack Greinke (15-4, 2.63) vs. Mike Minor (13-9, 3.21)

Game 3, October 6 - Braves at Dodgers, Time TBA
Julio Teheran (14-8, 3.20) vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-8, 3.00)

Game 4 (if nec.), October 7 - Braves at Dodgers, Time TBA
Starters TBA

Game 5 (if nec.), October 9 - Dodgers at Braves, Time TBA
Clayton Kershaw vs. Kris Medlen


For Game 4, the Dodgers would most likely go with Ricky Nolasco, while the Braves would turn to either a pair of lefties, Paul Maholm or Alex Wood.

All games will be played on TBS, with MLB Network a possibility for a game or two.

Monday, September 30, 2013

5 reasons the Dodgers will win the World Series... and 5 reasons they won't

Here we go, postseason time!  The Dodgers open up in Atlanta in the best-of-five series for a trip to the NLCS.  And from there, in what would be their first trip back in 25 years since winning it all in 1988, the Fall Classic.

Let's take a look at five reasons the Dodgers can win it all, and five reasons they might not.

Think Positively!

1. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke as a 1-2 punch.  There are plenty of great arms on display in the postseason, but none quite as good as what the Dodgers can roll out to the mound the first two games of any series.  No matter who is in or out of the lineup, Don Mattingly knows the Dodgers have a great chance with Kershaw and Greinke toeing the rubber.

Based on the second half of the season, it's no stretch to say that these guys are also the top two pitchers in baseball right now.  We all know how fantastic Kershaw was in what will be his second Cy Young Award won (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP ), but Greinke's stats after the All-Star break have been phenomenal as well (7-2, 1.85 ERA, 0.98 WHIP).  If your numbers approach Kershaw's, even for half the season, then you've done something pretty special.  Despite playing at home for the first couple of games of the NLDS, the Braves can't feel that great about their chances.  The numbers back it up.

2. Hanley Ramirez is the best hitter around.  There's no doubt that 2013 has been the season that has put Ramirez back on the map, despite playing in only 86 games because of various injuries.  But by hitting .345 with 20 homers and 57 RBIs, he reminded everyone just how well-rounded a hitter he is.

Now is the time for Ramirez to put the offense on his back and get the big hits needed to win.  With Matt Kemp out for the playoffs, it's even more important that he hits well.  Yes, he's still banged up, but even at less than 100%, he's a great hitter.  After only gathering 11 at-bats in April and May combined, he ended July with a .365 average, 10 homers, and 34 RBIs.  I don't think at any point this season he's been fully healthy, so that stats show just how good he is anyway.  A big month of October will not only lead the Dodgers to a title, but a big fat contract extension as well!

3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage.  There's just something about Puig and his flair for dramatics that can get Dodger fans excited.  After making a big splash in Spring Training, he was called up on June 2 with the Dodgers at a pathetic 23-32. Puig lit a fire in this team that helped carry them to the NL West title.

His lack of big game experience shouldn't be a factor at all, because if anyone is ready and willing to go all out, all the time, it's Puig.  He's the type of player that can strikeout his first four at-bats, then hit the game-winning homer in his fifth.  He can also make the big diving catch to save a game.  I think he's chomping at the bit to get out there and prove what kind of a great player he is.

4. Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen closing out games.  It's taken only 18 games for Wilson to prove that not only is he back, he's just as dominant as ever.  Combine his arm with Kenley Jansen's, and the Dodgers have to feel very confident with a lead after seven innings.

Wilson carries an 0.66 ERA into the postseason along with three holds.  He's a more reliable option than Ronald Belisario, who continues to go from good to bad one game to the next.  Wilson also has the obvious postseason experience having won two rings with the Giants, including closing out the World Series over the Rangers in 2010.  Jansen was sensational in the closer's role with 28 saves, a 1.88 ERA, and 111 strikeouts in 76 2/3 innings.  They're both ready to let it loose.

5. Road warriors.  The team with the best record away from home?  That would be the Dodgers, which tied the Rangers for tops in the Majors at a 45-36 clip.  Thanks in large part to their historic 15-game road winning streak around the All-Star break, the Dodgers appear just as comfortable away from home as they do at Chavez Ravine.

Of course any team would rather open up the postseason at home, but keep in mind that Kershaw and Greinke are going the first two games in Atlanta, so the Dodgers' confidence has to be high.  Basically they need to take one game on the road to regain home field advantage, which seems doable.  And based on their great road record, it can certainly happen.


Watch Out!

1. No Matt Kemp.  As Don Mattingly correctly pointed out as news of Kemp's shutdown hit on Sunday, the Dodgers went 42-8 at one point without him.  Kemp has only played in 179 games the last two seasons, so they're certainly used to not having him around.

But with all of that said, there's just no way the Dodgers won't miss him.  Opposing pitchers have to gameplan a whole heck of a lot more against Kemp than they do for his replacements like Skip Schumaker, or even Andre Ethier, who might also miss the NLDS.  Kemp has the type of impact bat that could give the Dodgers a big lead late in the game with a home run.  That's so hard to replace.  And since all signs were that he'd be back for the postseason, only to get the bad news after the last regular season game, there's no doubt it's a big blow for everyone.

2. Injury prone.  To go along with Kemp, it seems like there are so many guys who are only a play away from being done for the season as well.  Ethier is most likely either scratched from the NLDS or is only a pinch-hitter.  Ramirez has been banged up all season.  Puig has been battling through a few ailments lately as well.

Don Mattingly is used to mixing and matching his lineup on a daily basis, but still, it's tough not to be able to write in his big guns everyday and let them do their thing.  The fact that Schumaker is the probable starting centerfielder is a reminder just how things can change so quickly.  Can you imagine what would happen if Kershaw, Greinke, or Jansen got hurt as well?  Man, that would be awful.

3. Yasiel Puig on the big stage.  Yes, you read that right.  As much as Puig is about to embrace the bright lights of October, it could turn out to be a disaster if he gets out of control.

We've already seen Mattingly and his own teammates get on his case for throwing temper tantrums, and trying to throw guys out from about 800 feet away, allowing runners to move up.  Plus, there have been a whole lot of swings and misses of late, mostly because he looks like he's trying to kill everything.  Expect pitchers to make him expand the zone and challenge him to be patient.  What if he doesn't want to walk?  He'll be an easy out from the leadoff spot if he can't control himself, and the offense will suffer.

4. Streaky offense.  It's true that the final three-game series against the Rockies was meaningless in the big picture, but take a look at their run production: 11, 0, 1.  That's not exactly the most encouraging way to enter the postseason.

Their runs scored has dipped quite a bit in September.  In August they scored 128 runs (4.4 AVG), good for third in the NL.  This past month that fell to 102 (3.8 AVG), which was ninth.  Granted, some of those games were played with quirky lineups thanks to being the first team to clinch the division, but plenty of the regulars still got their swings in.  Maybe the offense is ready to roll again with a set lineup, but they'll have to prove that.  And with Kemp not in there, it'll be even tougher.

5. Ricky Nolasco fading.  After shutting down the Diamondbacks on September 9, Nolasco stood at 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA in 12 starts with the Dodgers.  It sure looked like the Dodgers had a huge advantage in the first three games of any series with Kershaw, Greinke, and Nolasco, not to mention Hyun-Jin Ryu after that.  Life was good.

And then life was bad.  His next three starts were an unbelievable disaster, as he got bombed by going 0-2 with a 12.75 ERA.  He seriously went from unhittable to batting practice.  There really was no in between.  I firmly believe he would've been the Game 3 starter, but not anymore.  Suppose the Dodgers are down 2-1 in the NLDS, how confident are they sending him to the mound?  It's hard to say they would feel that good about it right now.  That's how badly things have turned around for him.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Kemp done for the playoffs

Ouch... in more ways than one.

My how things can quickly turn around for the injury plagued Matt Kemp.  One day after being a late scratch from Saturday night's lineup, the Dodgers have announced the Kemp will not return at all this season.  He was on crutches during the team's postseason rally after Sunday afternoon's game, which he'll remain on for three weeks, and will also have minor shoulder surgery.

The news is hardly surprising, but nonetheless, still very disappointing.  The Dodgers were hoping that they'd have Kemp back in the lineup for that extra punch with Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, and Adrian Gonzalez.  Now they'll have to face the distinct possibility of opening up the Division Series in Atlanta on Thursday with Skip Schumaker in center.

I'm sure the Braves are shaking in their cleats.

If you're wondering why not Andre Ethier in center, that's because he's looking doubtful with a sore ankle as well.  He hasn't played since September 13, and can barely run the bases.  I'm guessing a guy with a bad ankle who can't run the bases probably can't run around center field as well.

At least Puig and Carl Crawford are playing, and while they're not exactly 100% either, they'll be relied on a whole lot more with Kemp definitely not coming back.

All the Dodgers can hope for is Kemp to get his surgery, get healed properly, and be ready to go for 2014.  It's pretty harsh to say, but after signing an eight-year, $160 million extension two years ago, they've pretty much gotten nothing out of him.  It's been one injury and letdown after another.  This is just the latest blow.

The Dodgers are certainly used to playing without him, however, so that will just have continue into the NLDS.

Banged up outfielders plaguing the Dodgers heading into October

Remember when Yasiel Puig was called up from Double-A back in June, and the major question was how Don Mattingly would juggle four starting outfielders?

Mattingly has yet to answer that question because he hasn't needed to.  And with the playoffs less than a week away, that's a bit of a problem.

Matt Kemp was a late scratch from the lineup on Saturday, which turned out to be a 1-0 loss to the Rockies, and Yasiel Puig and Andre Ethier sat out as well.  Oh, and Carl Crawford got the night off to not risk any injury to him, too.  Add that all up, and the starting outfield consisted of Scott Van Slyke in left, Skip Schumaker in center, and Chili Buss in right.

I'm guessing that's not exactly the lineup that's going to get it done in the NLDS.  Or in any game.

Look, Kemp actually deserves credit for sitting out on Saturday with his sore left ankle.  I'm not sure he would've used that same caution even a year ago, so not getting hurt worse in a meaningless game was the smart call.  But it's also giving the Dodgers more reasons to worry that one little thing will cause him to go down again.  That's the way it's been the last two years.

The Dodgers know they will open the NLDS on the road in either Atlanta or St. Louis.  Mattingly is doing all he can to give his guys rest, while not having them sit too long and get rusty.  It's a tough balance when you manage a team that gets hurt so much like this one.

At this point, it looks like Crawford, Kemp, and Puig will be the starting outfield in Game 1, with Andre Ethier either sitting out the first round, or available off the bench because of his ankle.  That could go either way.  Basically it's four guys all banged up at various levels, and that can't be very comforting for Mattingly.

Who this does benefit is guys like Schumaker, Nick Punto, and possibly Jerry Hairston to make the 25-man roster for the NLDS.  Those guys don't have nearly the impact bats that the other guys do, but the Dodgers need that insurance just in case something else happens.  And if we've learned anything from this season, it's that the next injury could be a foul ball off the leg away, ala Puig on Friday.

Maybe some rest until Thursday is exactly what the Dodgers need, as it's certainly a better scenario than playing in a do-or-die Wild Card game on Tuesday.  Don't be surprised, however, to see Mattingly using all sorts of different combinations in the NLDS because of one injury after another.

Hey, at least he's used to this.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

All that's left for Kershaw is to dominate October

Regular season, done.  Cy Young Award, done.  NL West division champs, done.

Now it's time for the best pitcher in baseball to shine on the biggest stage.

For Clayton Kershaw, when he takes the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS on the road in either Atlanta or St. Louis, he'll have the chance to show the whole world what he's all about.  Not just those late-night West Coast fans, but baseball fans everywhere.

So if you've ever wondered why Kershaw doesn't get all of the glowing praise he should get as the best pitcher in baseball, perhaps it's because not enough eyes are on him.  That's about to change.

Kershaw was simply sensational on Friday night, completely shutting down the Rockies as the bats went nuts in an 11-0 win.  Clearly on a limit since the Cardinals already won and the thought of securing home field in the playoffs went out the window, he lasted six innings and 82 pitches for four hits, no runs, no walks, and eight strikeouts.

His final tally for the season?  16-9, 1.83 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 232 K's in 236 innings.  Wow.  As good as pitchers like Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, and Craig Kimbrel have been, there's no way Kershaw shouldn't be the unanimous Cy Young Award winner.  But you know some idiot voter will beg to differ just for the sake of standing out.

With a couple games left for each team in the regular season, here's where Kershaw stands in the National League: first in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP; second in innings pitched; and third in wins and complete games.  And to think, as Don Mattingly pointed out after the game, he'd easily have well over 20 wins if he got a shred of run support early in the season.  He certainly did on Friday.

It's already set in stone that Kershaw will go in Game 1 on the road to open up the playoffs.  Is there any reason to worry that he'll toe the rubber away from home?  Um, no.  In 113 1/3 innings on the road this season covering 16 starts, he's 8-3 with a 2.14 ERA and 104 K's.  His BAA is actually better as it's a measly .187 compared to .203 at home.  That's a reason to be very encouraged as well.

From there, his next start (we hope) would either be Game 5 of the NLDS in a do-or-die situation, or Game 1 of the NLCS.  But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

For now, it's a very exciting time for Kershaw to prove his worth to all of the world, and not just the West Coast fans.  Give him the ball, watch him dissect his opponents, and the wins will pile up.

Hopefully all the way to a World Series championship.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Did Nolasco pitch his way out of an NLDS start?

Ricky Nolasco took one last start in the regular season on Wednesday night in San Francisco, looking to erase some bad vibes from his previous two starts.

The result?  Uh, not good.

The Giants had little trouble hitting him around in a 6-4 win, as he gave up six runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings.  The only good news was that he struck out seven and only walked one, but it hardly mattered.  He's been hit around really hard his last three trips to the mound, and now the question has to be if he'll even get a start in October.

It's a pretty big turnaround from his first 12 starts with the Dodgers after coming over from the Marlins.  In those he went 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA, and in 10 of those starts he surrendered two or less earned runs.  And let me tell you, he sure looked like he was going to overtake Hyun-Jin Ryu for that Game 3 start, because his stuff looked incredible.

And then came the start he made at home on Saturday, September 14 against the Giants in which he was absolutely shelled.  He only lasted four outs, giving up seven runs (five earned) on seven hits, walking three, and recorded no strikeouts.  Boy was he bad that night.

The hope was that that game would be an anomaly, but thus far, it sure hasn't looked like it.  The Diamondbacks got to him for six runs in five innings on September 19, and then last night's game against the Giants.  Add up those three starts, and he's 0-2 with a 12.75 ERA.  Talk about a big dropoff.

So, let's pose the question right now: Will Nolasco get a start in the NLDS?

One thing that we have to keep in mind is that the NLDS schedule plays a big factor in Don Mattingly's decision when to use his pitchers.  While the times will need to be worked out, the days the games occur has been set: October 3, 4, 6, 7, and 9.  In looking at this, Clayton Kershaw will make a Game 1 start, then go on Game 5 if necessary on five day's rest.  Zack Greinke will go in Game 2 and could also pitch in Game 5 since he'd be on four day's rest.  But, I can't imagine him getting the call over Kershaw.

With that in mind, it appears as if Mattingly will have to use four separate starters in the NLDS, as the schedule, barring a rainout, won't allow anything different.  So, Nolasco looks to be in good shape to at least be a candidate for a Game 4 start.  Being a candidate and actually getting the start are two different things, though.

I'm not sure anybody thought they'd see this happen, but Volquez's start tonight against the Giants could play a big part in who gets an NLDS start.  I would say Nolasco is still the clear favorite, but say Volquez pitches a gem, would Mattingly make the switch?  I'm not so sure, it's something to keep in mind.

Mattingly did say after Wednesday's game that he's not concerned about Nolasco, and perhaps he's being completely honest.  It's just a shame how bad Nolasco's timing is, as the last thing the Dodgers need is to be in a must-win game with a guy on the mound they lack confidence in. 

But then again, the Dodgers may not have any other choice than to take their chances.  We will see.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Looking at possible NLDS opponents

The playoff teams in the National League are officially locked in, so in addition to my beloved Dodgers, congrats goes out to the Braves, Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds.  It's safe to the NL Central is representing.

As of now, the Braves have a 1/2 game lead over the Cardinals for home field advantage, with the other three teams very close behind.  So, with the exception of the NL East champion Braves, the Dodgers still could face any of the three teams from the Central.

And with that in mind, let's take a look at how the Dodgers fared against each of them this season.

Cardinals

Season Series: 4-3 Dodgers (7-0 Cardinals, 5-3 Dodgers, 5-3 Cardinals, 3-2 Dodgers, 5-1 Cardinals, 13-4 Dodgers, 5-1 Dodgers)

Thoughts: The 5-1 loss to the Cardinals was the game that snapped the 15-game road winning streak back in the beginning of August.  And to think, that was a game started by Clayton Kershaw.  No worries, as Ricky Nolasco and Hyun-Jin Ryu took care of business the next two days.

It's probably no surprise that the Dodgers dropped two of three in May, then won three of four in August.  Like pretty much every other team they played, it all comes down to which half of the season it occurred.  Back in May, Brandon League picked up the save in the 5-3 win.  My how times have changed.


Pirates

Season Series: 4-2 Dodgers (3-0 Dodgers, 1-0 Dodgers, 6-2 Dodgers, 3-0 Pirates, 5-3 Dodgers, 6-3 Pirates)

Thoughts: All of these games took place before July, and after the Dodgers lost the last game, their record stood at 29-39.  Considering how much of a mess they were at this time, it's actually pretty amazing they were even able to win four of six.

After sweeping the Pirates in their second home series of the season, it took until the 14th home series to get another one (late June against the Giants, which was when they began their incredible turnaround).  In the big picture, both teams probably can't put much stock into these matchups because they're both so much better now.  The Dodgers have gotten much healthier, and the Pirates made some big trades for Justin Morneau and Marlon Byrd.


Reds

Season Series: 4-3 Reds (5-2 Reds, 2-1 Dodgers, 4-1 Dodgers, 1-0 Dodgers, 3-2 Reds, 4-3 Reds, 3-2 Reds)

Thoughts: As opposed to the Pirates' series, this is a better reflection of how each team might currently fare against each other.  All seven games took place from July 25 and on.  Toss out the first game, and the home team won every game thereafter.

Only two of these games were decided by more than one run, so getting the last at-bat appears to be very important.  Plus, each team has a dominant closer in Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman, so the margin of error is very slim.  I doubt either team would run away with any game if they locked horns in a five or seven-game series.

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Kershaw takes one more step towards Cy Young #2

With extra rest and October in mind, Clayton Kershaw got back to doing what he does best - completely dominate the competition.

Kershaw went seven strong in holding the Padres scoreless to go along with 10 strikeouts, and two-run shots by A.J. Ellis and Yasiel Puig were more than enough for the Dodgers to win, 4-0.  Kershaw has one start left in the regular season, but has already all but wrapped up his second Cy Young Award in the last three seasons.

Since the NL West is already clinched, the only bit of drama left is home field advantage.  The Braves lost late to the Cubs, and have lost six of their last 10.  They still have a 1/2 game edge over the Cardinals, and 2 1/2 over the Dodgers and Pirates.  Next week should be interesting in that duel.

In this game, both teams put multiple runners on in the first.  The Dodgers loaded the bases on a walk to Puig (who was then forced at second on Carl Crawford's grounder), a walk to Matt Kemp, and a single by Juan Uribe.  Mark Ellis struck out to end it.  The Padres had Chris Denorfia single on the first pitch and Jedd Gyorko walk, but that was it.

The best chance for the Padres to score came in the third, when they foolishly ran into the last out.  The opposing pitcher Burch Smith singled leading off, Denorfia walked, and both advanced a base when Chase Headley struck out.  Gyorko then grounded out to Ellis at second, and Smith tried to sneak home and was gunned out by Adrian Gonzalez.

Sure enough, the Dodgers immediately took advantage of that gaffe.  In the fourth, Mark Ellis took a walk with one out, and his "brother" A.J. Ellis took a low and inside pitch out to left for a two-run homer.

Kershaw was in full control at this point, as Gyorko's double play led to eight straight retired before Headley doubled in the sixth (he was stranded).  Then Kershaw laid down a perfect bunt leading off the seventh.  Puig, who without a doubt goes for it all on every swing, definitely connected on a high fastball out to dead center for a 457 foot homer, making it 4-0.  It was an absolute mammoth shot.

The bullpen took over the final two innings, as Ronald Belisario and Brian Wilson each went 1-2-3 in ending the game.

One night after Don Mattingly ran out a Spring Training lineup, which was completely understandable considering the regulars were so exhausted from all of that swimming they did in Arizona, which raised the ire of perennial losers like John McCain, everyone was back in the lineup except for Hanley Ramirez.  And that's not a surprise, because Ramirez probably won't be seeing much action as the season winds down.

Anyway, it was good to see Kershaw get the support he needed in winning his 15th game.  He's been uncharacteristically erratic in September, so I'm sure it naturally had to feel good to him that the bats had his back, and not a bunch of guys better suited for Triple-A. 

Kershaw is expected to end the season at home against the Rockies next Friday.  At this point, it's all about padding the stats, though I don't think he even needs to do that to win the Cy Young.  There's a few other guys who will get some love like Craig Kimbrel, Adam Wainwright, Francisco Liriano, Cliff Lee, and Jose Fernandez.  Those guys are great... but they're not Kershaw.

Speaking of great pitchers, Zack Greinke hasn't lost since July 25 against the Reds.  At the time he was 8-3 with a 3.49 ERA, and now he's 15-3 with a 2.75 ERA.  He'll look to make that even better by going on Sunday afternoon.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Kemp and Puig won't see fastballs all postseason

Friday night belonged to the Dodgers' "B" team, as Edinson Volquez pitched well into the seventh, but the offense consisting of names like Tim Federowicz, Chili Buss, and Alex Castellanos did squat in losing 2-0.

All of the big names got the night off, as not one position featured a guy who will start in Game 1 of the Division Series.

Something that I did find interesting, though, was the last two outs of the game.  Skip Schumaker, who got his first and probably last start hitting third, doubled off of Huston Street leading off.  After Scott Van Slyke grounded out, Don Mattingly unleashed some of those big dogs to pinch-hit.  It started with Adrian Gonzalez, who singled for runners on the corners.

Then came Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, who no doubt were thinking one thing and one thing only: hit the thing clear out of the park.  Did it happen?

Uh, no.  Slider after slider after slider struck them both out swinging.  In fact, they didn't even do so much as make contact at any point.  As Street point out after the game, neither guy is used to pinch-hitting.  But still...

It got me thinking about the opposing pitchers' strategy against these two come October.  It's pretty obvious: feed them sliders, and don't put a fastball anywhere close to the plate.  Both guys might hang themselves if pitchers stick to that plan.

And with that, Puig and Kemp will have to show some patience and not try to crush the ball on every swing, ala Friday night in San Diego.  They might have to become the ultimate mistake pitch hitters, because pitchers would be crazy to challenge them with fastballs in the zone.  That wouldn't make any sense.

While I can't imagine Mattingly running out a lineup like this every game, I do think it'll feature a mixture of his regular guys, followed by plenty of pinch-hitting chances like they saw in this one.  So I'm sure Puig and Kemp will get more chances at redemption in the late innings.  They just better be prepared for pitch after pitch bending outside the zone.

And they also have to accept that a walk isn't such a bad thing either.

Thursday, September 19, 2013

A.J.'s solo shot gives the Dodgers the NL West crown!

Jump for joy! First NL West crown since '09.

It took a big start, a huge meltdown, and a big solo homer for the Dodgers to seal the deal.  Add it all up, and a 7-6 win over the Diamondbacks gives the Dodgers their first NL West crown in four years!  They're also the first team to clinch a division championship, as they now set their sights on the postseason.

This was not a typical National League game featuring great pitching and low scoring.  No indeed.  Rather, Ricky Nolasco and Wade Miley were both very fortunate to not be hung with loses by the time this one was over.

Neither team scored through two, though both did put runners on in each frame.  If you thought that Nolasco and Miley were going to settle in and the game would fly right by, then you would've been badly mistaken.

Miley's downfall started in the third when he walked Nolasco leading off.  Yasiel Puig also walked.  Jerry Hairston blooped a hit into right, but then Puig remembered he was Puig, and somehow got thrown out at second to officially turn the hit into a fielder's choice.  Ugh. 

Then Hanley Ramirez turned the Dodgers' frown upside down with a three-run bomb to left, and it was 3-0.  That would not be the last we'd hear from him on this day.

Nolasco was coming off a very rough start at home against the Giants last Saturday, a game that the rivals ended up winning 19-3.  For as good as he's been since the trade, he looked every bit as bad as he was last start in the third.

Two straight singles by Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollack were only a sign of things to come.  Paul Goldschmidt hit a two-run ground rule double to make it 3-2, and then the game was tied on an RBI triple from Martin Prado.

Aaron Hill struck out for the first out, but an RBI single by Miguel Montero gave the DBacks a 4-3 lead.  Then Miley of all people rubbed salt in the wound with a two-run double with two outs, and the DBacks were in control up 6-3.

It was obvious at this point the Dodgers needed their offense to carry them, and their bullpen to at least keeps things manageable if they wanted to clinch.  That started to happen in the sixth.  Juan Uribe, who again had a great game at the hot corner, doubled leading off, and scored on Scott Van Slyke's RBI double.  Michael Young scored the other run on a sac-fly, and it was 6-5.

The Dodgers rank 24th in the majors in home runs, trailing lowly teams like the Padres and Twins.  So, banking on the long ball to get the lead back wasn't a sure thing.  However, Ramirez reminded everyone just how deadly he is when he's at the plate with a solo homer leading off the seventh, and just like that, the game was tied at 6-6.

Brandon League got through the seventh unharmed, and was able to start the seventh by getting Hill to ground out.  J.P. Howell then came in, and despite a walk to Didi Gregorius and a wild pitch, got the next two outs.

Just like the previous inning, the Dodgers started the eighth with a bang as Ellis hit his eighth homer.  Heck, he even appeared pumped up coming into the dugout, something you rarely see from him.

With the way runs have been scored in bunches this series, everyone knew this one wasn't nearly over yet.  Brian Wilson came in for Howell in the eighth and was fantastic, getting the DBacks in order.

The last bit of drama was in the ninth, as Kenley Jansen was given the ball for the save, and the powerful Goldschmidt stepped to the plate.  Jansen made quick work of him with a three-pitch strikeout, then got Prado swinging, and ended things when Hill flew out to Skip Schumaker in left.

Game over.  NL West title won.  Playoff ticket punched.

Three months into the season at the start of July, the Dodgers were in dead last place in the NL West, five games under .500.  Since then it's been a combination of much better health, great starting pitching, much-improved relief work, and one clutch hit after another that has been the winning recipe for the boys in blue.  Has this been fun to watch or what?

With nine game left in the regular season, the Dodgers have two obvious goals.  The first is to get as healthy as can be, all while giving their pitchers just enough work to stay fresh.  The second is to go after home field, as they're still within striking distance of that.  They're bunched up with the Braves, Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals for the top spot, with about three games separating everyone.

For now the Dodgers will enjoy the riches of already clinching the division.  They'll also have to get dry after invading that ridiculous pool the DBacks have in center.  How great was it to watch some of those guys jump in?  I love it!  Arizona is Dodger Country tonight.

Then it'll be off to San Diego for three, with Edinson Volquez going Friday, followed by Clayton Kerhsaw and Zack Greinke.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

The big dogs are back, and the Dodgers are ready to clinch

What a night it was for the Dodgers on Tuesday.  Limping into the game having lost four straight and 9 of their previous 12, Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez were back in the lineup.

The result?  An 8-1 lead after four, and many reasons to get excited again.

Simply put, everything went right for the Dodgers, who now have a magic number of two to clinch the NL West.  That number may as well be one, because if they defeat the Diamondbacks today or tomorrow, then it's all settled.

Everything went according to script, save for Yasiel Puig's 0-for-5 night.  In the first, Mark Ellis and Ramirez singled with one out.  Adrian Gonzalez popped up, but a wild pitch soon put two runners in scoring position.  Kemp then began his big night with a two-run double, and it was 2-0.

Another guy who's had an incredible season, and truly out of nowhere at that, is Juan Uribe.  That continued in this one with a monstrous two-run homer to left, and All-Star Patrick Corbin was reeling down 4-0.

Two more runs were added in the third.  Ramirez walked on a full count leading off, Gonzalez launched a two-run shot to right, and it was 6-0.  After Kemp again doubled, this time an absolute bomb to dead center that somehow stayed in the yard, that was it for Corbin's night.  Matt Langwell got out of the jam after that.

The lead was ballooned even more in the fourth, and it all started on a walk to Zack Greinke.  He then went to second on Puig's groundout, and Ellis's RBI single to center made it 7-0.  Ramirez again took a walk, Gonzo popped up, and Kemp plated another on an RBI single to make it 8-0 as Ramirez was tagged out going to third.

That was more than enough for Greinke, who only gave up an RBI fielder's choice to Martin Prado and a solo homer to Aaron Hill.  He ended up going six innings for six hits, two runs, one walk, and five strikeouts, and his record is now at 15-3 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  And to think, he's only a #2 starter!  Wow.

Both teams traded runs in the eighth.  Michael Young hit an RBI triple to score Ramirez and make it 9-2.  The DBacks got the last run of the night on an RBI groundout by Willie Bloomquist.

Kenley Jansen came on and closed out the non-save situation, walking a couple, but getting Adam Eaton to ground into the game ending double play.

When the Braves, Pirates, Cardinals, and Reds (and possibly the Nationals with the way they're playing) looked at the box score of this game and saw Kemp go 4-for-4 with two doubles and three RBIs, they have to at least be somewhat worried.  It was his first start in nearly two months, yet swung the bat like it was 2011 all over again.

Then if they were to look and see Ramirez taking three walks and getting one hit, and Gonzalez and Uribe with two-run homers, you're probably wondering where the weak spot in the order is.  Heck, maybe it wasn't such a bad thing that Puig went hitless, as it shows how deep the Dodgers are when they have their full lineup.

No matter how you look at things, this was a great night.  And it can only get better with a big win to take back the NL West on Wednesday.  It won't be Clayton Kershaw getting the call, but rather Stephen Fife.  Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants to the DBacks if they still lose?  I'd love it!