Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Can the Dodgers survive two more weeks without Jansen?



Today the Dodgers received news on Kenley Jansen that's mostly good - he'll be out of action another two weeks.  He's not lost for the year like originally thought, so that's obviously a positive.

The negative?  The Dodgers have to try and find a way to survive at least 14 more days without him.  And that's a tough situation to be in.

Currently, the Dodgers are 4 1/2 games behind the Giants in the NL West.  On the flip side, they're only a game in back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and 3 1/2 in back of the Braves for the top Wild Card spot.  At some point, they Dodgers may need to shift their focus to this and forget about the West.

And with the postseason still in reach, Don Mattingly has the unenviable position of trying to patch together his bullpen while his big dog misses more time.  It's amazing how things can get so thrown out of whack when a team's closer goes down.  It means everyone below him gets bumped up a notch, and that's not always a pretty thing.

Right now Mattingly is using Brandon League as his closer, and Ronald Belisario as the setup man.  League picked up the save last Saturday, and hasn't given up a run since August 17, so he's settled in.  Belisario was pathetic in July with a 6.60 ERA, but has bounced back very nicely since then, and has lowered his ERA from 3.20 at the end of July to 2.54 now.

So while those two may not be the problem, it's the guys underneath who really worry me.  Take a look at how Matt Guerrier performed on Tuesday.  Clayton Kershaw just got done pitching one-run ball over seven innings (with the one run literally coming on the first pitch of the game).  Guerrier started the eighth up 3-1, gave up a single to Chase Headley, then a homer to Yasmani Grandal.  Just like that, it's a tie game again, and all the momentum the Dodgers had was gone.

If Jansen was healthy, then either League or Belisario would've gotten the ball, and I sure like their chances of pitching better than that.  It's the trickle-down effect that killed them.

Fast forward to the 11th, and John Ely was in the game still tied.  He did just get through the Padres with ease in the 10th, so he went back out there for another inning.  An error by Luis Cruz didn't help, but Ely certainly wasn't able to get the job done, as a two-run single by Logan Forsythe and RBI single by Headley pretty much ended the game.

Once again, it showed the lack of depth of the bullpen.  Jamey Wright pitched two innings the night before, so he was unavailable.  Javy Guerra is hurt again, so obviously he wasn't an option either.  Mattingly really had no choice but to hope Ely could pitch another shutout inning, and it blew up in his face.

As long as the Dodgers' offense continues to scratch and claw for any run, the importance of the bullpen is magnified even more.  And right now, that's a scary though.  If they can't get a lead in the late innings to Belisario and League, then it's going to be really hard to get a win.

If losing Jansen for two more weeks isn't bad enough, the schedule makes it worse.  After wrapping up with the Padres on Wednesday, they go to the Giants for three, to the Diamondbacks for two, home against the Cardinals for four, and on the road against the Nationals for three.  It's during that Nationals' series that Jansen hopes to return.

The next 10 games before going to Washington are tough games with or without Jansen.  The Giants and Cardinals are slotted in the playoffs as of now, and the Diamondbacks are trying to fight their way back.  Not exactly the best schedule to have when there's a big injury.

We'll see how the bullpen steps up the next two weeks.  Between injuries and ineffectiveness, recent history isn't so pretty.  If the 'pen continues to bumble away leads late in games, you can all but stick a fork in the Dodgers in 2012.  Stay tuned.

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