The one guy the Dodgers thought they'd get at the trade deadline, Ryan Dempster, ended up going to the Rangers. While the Dodgers did add Shane Victorino and Hanley Ramirez to bolster the offense, and Randy Choate and Brandon League to do the same in the bullpen, there's no question that the rotation is a bit of a question mark.
Let's take a look at the rotation going forward.
Clayton Kershaw (8-6, 2.95 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 143 K's) - The clear ace of the staff, Kershaw reminded everyone just how he won the Cy Young Award last year with a complete game shutout of the Giants last Sunday. That was very encouraging considering he was rocked by the Cardinals in the start before that. Another area he's improved in - he hasn't given up a homer in five July starts. He had 11 total before that.
With no Dempster in the fold, the Dodgers need Kershaw to be the Alpha Dog from here on out. He can match up with anybody in the first game of a playoff series, so he'll be leaned on heavily to get the job done. I do think there's a little more pressure on him because the trade was never made, but I'm not worried about it. He's as tough a player as there is.
Chad Billingsley (6-9, 3.89, 1.35, 106) - There's no question that Billingsley has been a much more effective pitcher since he returned from the DL. In his last two starts, he's 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA. In the five starts before that, he was 0-5 with a 6.21 ERA. So it's not hard to see that the rest he was given in the middle of July has probably worked.
But, as has been the case all of his career, just when you think he may have things figured out, he gives you plenty of reasons to think otherwise. That's just the way it is. But make no mistake about it - Billingsley could be the key to the Dodgers' postseason success from here on out. Imagine if he really does pitch well the rest of the year? He would make a great 1-2 punch with Kershaw. Or, it could go completely the other way, and with no Dempster, the rotation is even thinner and not nearly as feared in the playoffs.
Chris Capuano (10-7, 3.33, 1.22, 119) - There's plenty to like about how Capuano's season has gone... but there's also reason to be a bit concerned. Two starts ago he was 10-5 with a 2.81 ERA. But after being lit up by the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, his numbers have gone up. It's not unfair to wonder if his arm is a bit tired, especially with the injury history he's had.
Another reason for concern is that he's historically a worse pitcher in the second half. Last season, he was 3-4 with a 5.08 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Over his career, he's 21-35 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Compare those numbers to 46-36, 3.70, and 1.29 in the first half, and you can see why I'm raising a red flag here.
About the only thing we can hope for is that those second half numbers don't pop up again, and his last two starts are just a bump in the road towards a great season. As of now, he'd pitch Game 2 or 3 in the playoffs. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen.
Aaron Harang (7-6, 3.76, 1.38) - Speaking of coming off a bad start, that would be Harang. He got torched for seven runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks on Monday, and looked every bit the part of a #5 starter and not the #3 he was before that. To his defense, that's the most runs he's given up all year, and actually had four great starts in July before that.
I do have to remind everyone that while Harang has pitched well this year, I'm a little mixed on if we can expect a sub-4 ERA when it's all said and done. He did do it last year in San Diego, going 14-7 with a 3.64 ERA, another pitcher's ballpark if there ever was one. Not to sound too down on him, because I do think he's pitched very well this year, but I just wonder if he can be counted on as a #4 type of starter in the playoffs.
Stephen Fife (0-0, 1.46, 1.30) - He's only made two starts (with the third one coming up very shortly as I type this), so who knows if he'll be counted on down the stretch. But, much to his credit, he's looked really good in those two starts. He's held down the Phillies and Giants for one run each. Can't do much better than that.
With Ted Lilly on his way back, and even Rubby De La Rosa, I don't think Fife will be playing much of a role down the stretch. Of course that could always change, especially if he keeps surrendering only one run per start. Then he would be hard to deny.
Currently on the DL, but due back this season:
Ted Lilly (5-1, 3.14, 1.13) - If there is a silver lining to the whole Dempster thing, it's that the Dodgers are basically acquiring a starter in Lilly, who's been on the 60-day DL with left shoulder inflammation, and hasn't started since May 23. He won five of his first six starts before being knocked around a bit and going down with the injury.
Assuming Lilly comes back with full health, then I really like what he can do in the stretch run. Let's not forgot how good he was in August and September last year. In 11 starts, he gave up only 16 earned runs, and was clearly one of the best pitchers in baseball at that time. It's not like the Dodgers were playing for anything at the time so there was little pressure, but that's still pretty awesome.
I can see Lilly pitching anywhere between Game 2 and 4 if he's feeling good. I could be jumping the gun a bit, but if his rehab starts go as planned and he does return in mid-August, then he'll have plenty of time to get back into a groove. As you can tell, I'm excited about his return.
Rubby De La Rosa (Injured all year) - Remember him? Well, he's been out since last season with Tommy John surgery. Like Lilly, he also has been slowing coming back into action with rehab outings. He started 10 games last year, and had a 4-5 record with a a 3.71 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
I'm not sure what we can expect from him this season other than depth. From what I saw of him last year, he does have good stuff, so maybe he can give some innings out of the 'pen. I'd be surprised if he ends up starting at any point. The only way that would happen is if there's more injuries. Let's hope not.
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