Here is my second installment of the "right/wrong" preview for the 2012 season, this time focusing on the pitching staff.
Starters
Clayton Kershaw
Right: Kershaw posts another line similar to last year: 21-5, 2.28 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 248 K's, 5 complete games, 2 shutouts. Thus, he earns another Cy Young Award.
Wrong: Well... he actually gives up a hit? Maybe a run or two? But seriously, the only scary thing about last year is that he set the bar too high, ala Tim Lincecum, whose "off year" was only a 13-14 record, but with 2.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 220 K's. If Kershaw slips a little, people will wonder if a career-high 233 1/3 innings was too much for a 23-year-old.
Chad Billingsley
Right: Bills finally finds any sort of consistency, rather than one good start - one bad start that has plagued him. He uses his stuff to regain his form from his All-Star first-half of '09, when he went 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Wrong: The downfall continues, and we once and for all declare him nothing more than a #4 or #5 starter.
Ted Lilly
Right: Lilly went through one of the more dramatic turnarounds in baseball last year, though rather quietly. He continues his fantastic final two months and gives the Dodgers something close to the 2.94 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and .183 BAA. Even a slight increase in those numbers is still good enough.
Wrong: He looks more like the batting practice pitcher he was for the first four months, including the horrific June and July starts.
Aaron Harang
Right: Harang stays healthy enough to post 28 starts again. While he's only made four career starts in Dodger Stadium, maintaining an ERA around 3.65 from the bottom of the rotation will do.
Wrong: Injuries continue to pile up, and he misses the friendly confines of spacious Petco Park, as his home/road splits show (3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP home/4.70, 1.65 road).
Chris Capuano
Right: Capuano gives the Dodgers 33 starts like he did the Mets last season. He slashes the homers (27) and keeps his strikeouts up (168 in 186 innings).
Wrong: Just like Harang, the home/road splits continue to be alarming (3.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP home/5.42, 1.41 road). Plus, while making 33 starts is great... getting pounded in many of them isn't.
Nathan Eovaldi
Right: While it looks unlikely Eovaldi will start the year in the rotation, you have to think at some point he'll get some starts. So, he'll look to use his sharp stuff to make some noise as a promising, young arm. Five of his first six career starts went at least five innings with two or less runs.
Wrong: He either hits a wall or gets bounced around between starting, relieving, and the minors. Hopefully the Dodgers can pick a role for him and stick to it.
Relievers
Javy Guerra
Right: From unknown to 21 saves, it's hard to do any better than Guerra's rookie season. Critics still aren't sold if he's the real deal, so he'll keep on flashing nerves of steel and locking down games at the end.
Wrong: The sophomore slump hits, and the National League has a better gameplan this time around. Or, it could be as simple as Kenley Jansen is just too good, and Guerra has to settle into a new role and doesn't excel as much.
Kenley Jansen
Right: It's hard to top setting a Major League record for K/9 at 16.1. The next step is to be dominant over the entire season, and quite possibly become the next stud closer.
Wrong: Lost in Jansen's terrific season was his rocky start. He gave up four runs in an inning his first appearance, and later in April got rocked for five runs in 1/3 inning against the Braves. Kind of like Kershaw, he set the bar so high for himself, that he'll probably need to weather some sort of storm at some point.
Matt Guerrier
Right: Guerrier reminds fans why he got a three-year, $12 million deal to begin with, as he regains his form from his Minnesota days. He's able to get big outs anywhere between innings 6-8.
Wrong: He doesn't do a whole lot better than a 4.07 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, which isn't bad, but not as good as it was the previous two years with the Twins.
Mike MacDougal
Right: MacDougal continues to erase any doubt that he's washed up, as he made big pitch after big pitch to post a 2.05 ERA in 69 appearances. Even if the ERA goes up a bit, he still can be productive in bridging the gap between starter and closer.
Wrong: While the 2.05 ERA was great, the reality is that a big 1.46 WHIP possibly showed a lot of luck, too. With a career 1.53 WHIP, too many baserunners could easily lead to some horrific outings.
Scott Elbert
Right: Hong-Chih Kuo is history, so the role of left-handed specialist has fallen on Elbert's lap. That could be a good thing, as Elbert appeared in 47 games for a 2.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 34 K's in 34 1/3 innings. Thus, it appears as if the issues that caused him to leave during the 2010 season are over.
Wrong: The sample size is small, so maybe he's still not quite ready to pitch well for an entire season. Plus, fair or not, there's still the possibility of personal issues popping up again, as he's only a couple years removed from it.
Todd Coffey
Right: Coffey won't be asked to get too many big outs late in games, but you never know. He bounced back quite well after getting hammered in 2010, so anything close to the 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP he posted with the Nationals last year will do.
Wrong: A career BAA of .283 is a little scary. I can see him getting lost in the shuffle or released if he doesn't pitch well and guys like Blake Hawksworth and Eovaldi are ready to step in.
Josh Lindblom
Right: There's always room for power arms, and Lindblom is no different. He certainly showed what he could do, as after appearing various times in June, he made many more trips to the hill after being recalled in late July. A 2.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 28 K's in 29 1/3 innings showed he could be ready to take on an even bigger role late in games this year.
Wrong: The experience just isn't there yet, so it's natural that he'll go through a rough patch at some point. And when that happens, will he try to blow everyone away, or will he become better at location and mixing up his speeds? That will be the key.
No comments:
Post a Comment